Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at Wolves, plus positive results for Ipswich & Brentford | OneFootball

Nottingham Forest v Ipswich (Sat, 15:00)

Two games ago Nottingham Forest were sat in the lofty heights of 3rd and a Champions League spot. Fast forward and back-to-back defeats, shipping three goals in both, sees them drop to 7th and only four points clear of 14th given the congested nature of the league.

They have the joint 3rd best defence in the league with only 13 goals conceded in their 12 games, but going forward they've only scored 15 goals, and there's a huge reliance on soon to be 33 years-old Chris Wood, who's responsible for 53% of their goals. Despite their lofty position, they have only actually won five games.

Ipswich come into this full of confidence following an unbeaten three game run including deservedly winning 2-1 at Spurs.

That was actually their first win of the season but they've been very competitive and have actually only lost five matches - the same number as 6th placed Spurs - and they've only scored two fewer goals than opponents Forest.

Following his £15M move from Man City, 21 year-old striker Liam Delap has got off to a great start in his debut Premier League season with six goals already.

Sammie Szmodics's has made the step up from the Championship with three goals including at both Man City and Spurs, whilst Leif Davis now has 20 assists since the beginning of last season.

Forest have only won two games by more than one goal so backing Ipswich +0.75 makes sense. Forest winning by a single goal would still see us get half our stake back.

Brentford v Leicester City (Sat, 15:00)

Brentford come into this with the best home record in the Premier League. They've won five and drawn one of their six home games, scoring the most goals with 18, an average of 3.0 per-game.

It's deserved too with them having created the 2nd most expected goals on home turf.

After four defeats in five game winless run, Leicester moved to sack Steve Cooper after just 157 days in charge. Coaches Ben Dawson, Danny Alcock and Andy Hughes have been put in temporary charge whilst the club look for their fourth manager in 19 months.

Defensively they have struggled having conceded 23 times - the 3rd highest in the league. They are high quality chances with Leicester having conceded the 2nd most expected goals at a whopping 28.61 - therefore lucky they not to have conceded more than their 23.

Slow starts have been an issue having conceded the opening goal 10 times, whilst going forward they've had the fewest shots with just 9.8 per-game.

Brentford have a great record at home against newly promoted clubs, winning eight of nine, scoring two or more goals in the process. Yoanne Wissa and Brian Mbeumo are in terrific form and between them they have 25 goals in the last 25 games.

Wolves v Bournemouth (Sat, 15:00)

Gary O'Neil's Wolves impressively won 4-1 at Fulham to record back-to-back wins and lift themselves out of the relegation zone. However, they're only outside of it on goal difference so there will be no resting on their laurels.

Bournemouth meanwhile are only six points clear of the drop but just seven points off the Champions League places! So there is plenty of motivation for both clubs here.

The issue with Wolves is defensively, having shipped 28 goals in their 12 games (2.33 per-game) - by far the most in the league. Further back they've conceded 49 goals in their last 22 games (2.23 per-game).

There hasn't been an issue scoring - they've scored more than Aston Villa (19) with 20 - and as a result it's seen 75% of their games go over 2.5 goals.

Bournemouth's matches have seen 33 goals (For 16, Against 17) at an average of 2.75 per-game. However, they should have scored more goals with them being one of the biggest underachievers in the league in-front of goal, having created 23.17 expected goals with the biggest culprits in Marcus Tavernier, Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson.

Their high quality chances is in no small part due to their willingness to get shots off ranking 3rd attempting 15.2 per-game. So it's no surprise that Over 2.5 goals is a regular winner with 16 of Bournemouth's last 24 games having seen three or more goals (67%).