Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at Villa and Leicester and a low scoring affair at Arsenal | OneFootball

Aston Villa v Fulham (12:30)

Aston Villa 1.82 must get over their 3-0 FA Cup semi-final defeat to Crystal Palace at Wembley quickly if they are to continue their quest for Champions League football again next season. They sit seventh, three points behind both Chelsea and Nottingham Forest and are rated a 4/1 shot to finish in the top five this season. To be fair to them, they bounced back from their quarter-final exit to PSG the week before by beating fellow Champions League-chasing Newcastle 4-1 so there's every chance Unai Emery can find the right words of encouragement once again.

Fulham 4.7 ended their run of five defeats in seven by coming from behind to beat Southampton 2-1 last weekend. They're only six points and one place back on Villa themselves and should have one eye on at least trying to equal their record finishing position of seventh achieved in 2008/09 under Roy Hodgson.

The first place to start is with this Aston Villa defence that has only kept two clean sheets in 17 games at home all season, which has contributed to 71% of their matches both home and away seeing Over 2.5 goals, including eight of their last nine games. Fulham's defence is just as vulnerable with only four clean sheets kept in their last 28 games. As a result, 15 of their last 22 matches have finished with three or more goals (68%).

The Villains won the reverse fixture 3-1 and since 2020 in the Premier League, six of seven meetings between these two have seen over 2.5 goals.

Leicester v Southampton (15:00)

The two worst teams in the Premier League meet at the King Power stadium on Saturday, and despite already being relegated, I'd argue both have something to play for. Ruud van Nistelrooy's Leicester 2.36 have lost 17 of their last 19 games and he must be on his final warning, whilst Southampton's 3.15 interim boss Simon Rusk has another four games in-charge if he wants to prove himself, with a draw and two defeats to show so far.

This is the second worst defence (76 goals conceded in 34 games - 2.24 per-game) versus the worst defence in the league (80 goals conceded in 34 - 2.35 per-game) so we have to back goals. I think either defence could win this bet by themselves!

Southampton haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 15 games, they've conceded two or more goals in 13 of their last 16 and three or more in 10 of their 15, resulting in 65% of their matches having Over 2.5 goals, with this bet winning in 14 of their last 16 matches (88%). This Leicester City side have seen three or more goals in 16 of their last 24 games (67%) and in the reverse fixture the Foxes ran out 3-2 winners.

Arsenal v Bournemouth (17:30)

With Arsenal 2.16 seven points clear of sixth place Nottingham Forest and facing Southampton away on the final day of the season, all focus has to be on the second leg of the Champions League semi-final against PSG next Wednesday. In the games before Real Madrid against Everton and Brentford, Mikel Arteta started none of Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard nor Jurrien Timber and with the Liverpool now crowned Champions, expect the likes of Gabriel Martinelli and Thomas Partey to also be rested, and likely disrupting Arsenal's attacking rhythm.

The Gunners have lost just three Premier League games all season and are unbeaten in 23 of their last 24 matches but their lack of goals has meant they've drawn 13 games - second only to Everton (14). As a result, 13 of their last 21 matches have finished Under 2.5 goals (62%), including seven of their last ten. This is also in thanks to them having the best defence in the league with only 29 goals conceded in 34 games (85%).

This weekends opponents Bournemouth 3.6 look like they may have run out of gas with only one win in their last nine games. This is due to their lack of goals with the Cherries scoring one or fewer in eight of their last 11. Rather than back Under 2.5 goals, we can actually take more security by backing Under 2.75 goals, knowing only four or more goals will see the bet completely lose. Bournemouth won the reverse fixture 2-0, albeit against the 10 men of Arsenal.