Saturday League 1 & 2 Tips: Calmer waters for Robbo in weekend 27/1 and 6/1 accas

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·17 January 2025

Saturday League 1 & 2 Tips: Calmer waters for Robbo in weekend 27/1 and 6/1 accas

EFL League One & League Two

Karl Robinson will be relieved to be back in League Two this Saturday following their 8-0 loss against Man City

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League One

Leg 1: Peterborough United v Leyton Orient, Saturday 12:30: Back Orient and BTTS 'Yes' @ 16/5

It's been quite the season for Leyton Orient and the reward for their recent Cup exploits is a mouth-watering home tie against Manchester City in the fourth round and are none too shabby in the league either as the O's have won each of their last five league games and will be looking to win six in succession for the first time since September 2022.

Richie Wellens' side are closing in on the play-offs following an exemplary run of results that has seen them claim 22 out of the last 24 points up for grabs, with their most recent League One game a 1-0 win against Shrewsbury - a performance which really saw them up their game after a drab first-half.

Defensively they are very sound and they kept Derby quiet with all their pace out wide on Tuesday, and while clean sheets have been in abundance, this fixture produced goals earlier in the season in a 2-2 at Brisbane Road and it's hard to see Posh keeping a clean sheet in their current run.

Not many would have predicted Peterborough down in 19th and Orient in 8th at the start of the season and backing goals with an away win gives us a decent option here of 16/5 as Posh have a higher xA at 1.50 than their xG output of 1.21.

KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough have lost each of their last two home league games and will be looking to avoid recording three successive such defeats for the first time since February 2022 in the Championship.

Leg 2: Crawley Town v Burton Albion, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'No' @ 11/10

Burton have netted just nine times in 11 away games this season and this basement battle is one for the relegation watchers which should be short on goals. Added to Burton's poor output of just 1.06xG away, Crawley themselves are shot shy with just 12 in 10 at home and hold a dreadful 0.91xG.

Neither make a compelling case to back as a win, as Burton have won just two of their last 25 league games (D8 L15), scoring more than one goal in just one of their last 10 outings during that run.

Crawley have failed to win any of their last five league games (D1 L4), conceding 3+ goals in four matches during that time too, and neither will want to give too much away considering their respective positions.

Gary Bowyer has made Burton a little harder to beat since taking over and they are three draws and three losses from their last six, but for us, they've failed to score in three of those and this is a game where I am surprised the BTTS 'Yes' is the shorter of the two.

KEY OPTA STAT: Burton Albion have failed to score in any of their three previous meetings with Crawley Town in the Football League, only failing to score in four successive Football League games against a side once before (4-game ongoing run against Northampton Town).

Leg 3:Reading v Stockport County, Saturday 15:00: Back Reading @ 11/5

Stockport ran out 4-1 winners at Edgeley Park in this fixture earlier this season with Louie Barry netting twice for County, but they are not without their young attacker who has since returned to Aston Villa and is very much hot property in the transfer window with Celtic the latest club to be linked with the 21-year-old.

Barry's 15 goals and three assists in 23 games will be hard to replace and backing Reading at home has been a sensible option for followers of the Royals with nine wins from 11 games.

Indeed, Reading have won 10 of their last 12 home league games (L2), conceding more than one goal in just two of those matches and the 11/5 is a price we can get involved with for Saturday.

KEY OPTA STAT: Stockport County have won just two of their previous 16 away Football League games against Reading (D5 L9), conceding 2.4 goals on average per match during that time.

League Two

Leg 1: Salford City v Fleetwood Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Salford @ 20/23

"Sometimes you've just got to take your medicine and say they were brilliant. It was a great experience, and it made a bit of money for the football club," were the words from Ammies manager Karl Robinson after last weekend's 8-0 drubbing at the hands of Manchester City at the Etihad, and there really wasn't a lot they could have done.

It shouldn't take away from a fabulous run in the league and back at home should see them bank the points on Saturday after their cup exploits and can justify their odds-on price.

Salford have won their last four at home with four clean sheets including a 3-0 beating of Notts County thanks to a Cole Stockton double.

Robinson could reap the benefits now of making some risky decisions over Christmas by rotating players and they've got three winnable games coming up now before a potential top-of-the-table clash against Walsall at the beginning of February but are in superb nick and have won each of their last six league games, with each of those victories also seeing the Ammies also keep a clean sheet. It's already Salford's longest ever winning run in the EFL.

KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood have lost four of their last five away league games (D1), conceding 2+ goals in each of those defeats during that time.

Leg 2: Morecambe v Crewe Alexandra, Saturday 15:00: Back Crewe @ 6/5

Crewe let us down in the depleted fixture list last weekend by failing to score against Swindon - a bad time for me as Swindon kept their first clean sheet in 99 days.

We shouldn't give up on the high-flying Crewe, though Omar Bogle and Jack Lankester, usually such a handful for opposing defenders didn't get going last weekend, although it was a game that was played with a lengthy delay due to the fog. Lee Bell was not happy with the first-half display and at least he saw something.

Bell said: "Swindon have been a danger from set plays in recent weeks and the pleasing thing was that we managed to nullify that and keep a clean sheet."

Morecambe have won just once all season at home with just 10 scored and have won just two of their last 13 Football League games against Crewe Alexandra (D3 L8), twice conceding 5+ goals in a match during that time. Crewe really should be odds-on for this and are currently one defeat in seven.

KEY OPTA STAT: Crewe have lost just one of their last 17 league games (W7 D9), though the Raileymen are winless across their last three away fixtures, since a 2-0 victory over Grimsby in early December.

Leg 3: Walsall v MK Dons, Saturday 15:00: Back Walsall @ 8/11

Walsall complete the top-three trifecta this weekend and ran out ready winners for the column last Saturday by hammering Tranmere 5-1 at the Bescot.

However, the Saddlers have to adjust to life with Nathan Lowe, who scored 18 goals and set-up seven more in 30 matches at the club but has returned to parent club Stoke and Mat Sadler now can call upon Albert Adomah, Danny Johnson or Josh Gordon

Jamille Matt shouldn't be overlooked as he scored twice in Walsall's rout over Tranmere Rovers and that brought up his century of goals in the Football League to take his tally to nine this term - more than last season's five.

Walsall have the best record at home in the league with 10 wins and F30 with xG numbers at the Bescot 1.58 and 0.94xA and face a Dons team with just one win from their last six.