Saturday Football Tips: Back a low scoring clash at St James' Park | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back again to talk about his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

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Newcastle v Arsenal (Sat, 12:30)

After last weekends draw with Liverpool, Arsenal are now five points behind leaders Manchester City and cannot afford to be dropping any points here, especially with Chelsea away up after.

Arsenal's return to challenging for the Premier League title has had it's foundation built on their excellent defence. Indeed last season they had the best defence in the league and since then they have conceded just 39 goals in 47 games - only 0.83 goals-per-game.

Away from home it's even more impressive, having let in only 17 in 23 games - 0.74 goals-per-game. With Martin Odegaard still out injured, a man with 18 goals and assists last season, who also creates the most chances for Arsenal, it means they have lost their focal point in attack and it feels like there is more emphasis on keeping things tight and relying on one or two goals for success.

Indeed four of their five away games this season have finished under 2.5 goals. Going further back, it's nine of their last 13 away that have seen fewer than four goals.

Newcastle meanwhile, are the joint fourth lowest scorers in the league with just nine goals, whilst alongside Arsenal, have also conceded the joint fourth lowest goals with 10. 8 of their 12 games this season have finished under 2.5 goals and historically this fixture at St James' Park has been a low scoring affair.

The last five meetings have all finished under 2.5 goals with a total of just eight goals at an average of 1.6 goals per-game. We can take additional security by backing the under 2.75 line still at a competitive price.

Bournemouth v Man City (Sat, 15:00)

Andoni Iraola has done a great job since taking over at Bournemouth in June-2023. In just his first full season in charge they finished with 48 points - the most Bournemouth have ever achieved.

However, over the summer they lost 19-goal top scorer in Dominic Solanke replacing him with club record signing Evanilson, though it remains to be seen if he can replicate the same form with just two goals so far.

Aside from their victory against 10-man Arsenal, one area Bournemouth are vulnerable is against the better teams.

Against last seasons top six, their record reads P15 W0 D3 L12 with their three draws coming outside of the big three against Aston Villa (x2) and Chelsea. Against Manchester City last season they lost 7-1 on aggregate.

Despite losing Rodri, Man City still occupy top of the league with seven wins and two draws. They've won 16 of their last 18 matches.

Pep Guardiola says City only have 13 outfield players available but Kevin de Bruyne missed five months of last season for the Champions, Doku and Grealish have both played similar minutes to the Belgian and Rico Lewis has deputised well for Kyle Walker. City were 1.46 here last season so look a bet at the prices with their starting XI more than capable of winning.

Wolves v Crystal Palace (Sat, 17:30)

Matheus Cunha's 93rd minute equaliser to make it 2-2 away at Brighton last weekend just might have been enough to keep Gary O'Neil in a job.

They've lost eight of nine winless games, conceding a league high 25 goals at an average of nearly three per-game. Yes their fixture list hasn't been easy having faced six of last seasons top seven but even at the end of last season there were worrying signs.

They lost seven of their last 10 games winning just once against relegated Luton. That means they have lost 14 of their last 19 games, conceding 46 goals.

If Gary O'Neil is in trouble, Oliver Glasner might have not been far behind him had Crystal Palace not beaten Tottenham last weekend.

t was their first win of the season following a winless eight game start. Their issues have been infront of goal having scored the joint fewest with just six.

However, they have underachieved their expected goals by five! Defensively they have been solid, conceding 11 in their nine games but again they have overachieved their expected goals by five! So actually Palace's game should have seen an additional 10 goals at an average of 3.0 per-game. Under Glasner last season his 13 matches saw 43 goals (3.31 per-game).

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Wolves's last 6 games and further back 10 of their last 13. Both games last season were goal heavy with Palace winning 3-1 at Molinuex and 3-2 at Selhurst Park.

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