Roma v Bayer Leverkusen: De Rossi's men can strike first blow

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·1 May 2024

Roma v Bayer Leverkusen: De Rossi's men can strike first blow

It's been a season for the ages from Bayer Leverkusen, but Kevin Hatchard believes that in-form Roma can cause them some problems in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final...

Roma edged out German side in last season's semi
Mancini and Cristante expected to be aggressive
De Rossi has revitalised Roma
When Roma's owners the Friedkin family decided to dispense with the services of coach Jose Mourinho, they knew it was a course of action that was fraught with danger. Mourinho had thrilled fans of the Giallorossi by delivering the Europa Conference League trophy in his first season, and then he took them to the Europa League final the following campaign, losing on penalties to Sevilla.
The Stadio Olimpico was selling out every two weeks, and Mourinho was at pains to tell the supporters he had turned down a lucrative offer from Saudi Arabia to stay in the Italian capital.
However, all was not as rosy as the picture Mourinho was trying to paint. The irascible Portuguese was constantly getting into arguments with referees, the style of football wasn't particularly inspiring, and perhaps most importantly of all it looked like Roma were once again going to miss out on the riches gleaned from Champions League qualification.
As Mourinho bid a tearful farewell, the Friedkins needed a solution, and found one pretty close to home. Club legend Daniele De Rossi stepped into the breach, and has delivered an excellent set of results, so much so that his involvement next season has already been confirmed. Roma lead Atalanta and Lazio in the race for the final Champions League spot (Italy gets five next year), and they could still catch fourth-placed Bologna.
In the UEL, De Rossi's side have excelled in the knockout rounds. They came through an incredibly close tie against Arne Slot's Feyenoord on penalties, they demolished Brighton and then beat Milan home and away. Roma have won 17 of their last 22 home matches in all competitions, and their recent defeat against an excellent Bologna was their first loss at home since early February.
Full-back Zeki Celik is suspended, while Romelu Lukaku is injured. His place in attack will probably go to Tammy Abraham, who is back after a serious injury and scored a late equaliser in the weekend's 2-2 draw at Napoli.
Leverkusen clinging onto invincible dream
There's no doubt that Bayer Leverkusen have been the best team in Germany this season. They have won their first Bundesliga title with over a month of the season to spare, they will chase a league and cup double against second-tier strugglers Kaiserslautern in the DFB Pokal final in late May, and they have reached the Europa League semi-finals for the second season running.
There's a lot to be positive about when it comes to Xabi Alonso's side. They keep possession incredibly well, they have a mix of pace and ingenuity in wide areas, they have one of the world's best young number 10s in Florian Wirtz, and they are excellent at defending in transition.
However, perhaps the most impressive feature of this group is their ability to dig out result after result in the dying embers of games. In the last two Bundesliga games alone they have found stoppage-time equalisers against Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart, and in the last 16 of the Europa League, Patrick Schick scored three stoppage-time goals across the two legs.
Bayer are now unbeaten in all 46 of their competitive games this term, which has smashed Bayern Munich's old record for a professional German club, and Juventus record for a club in Europe's top five leagues. Their last defeat was last May at Bochum on the final day of the Bundesliga season.
Xabi Alonso will field his strongest available XI here. Wirtz was only a sub against Stuttgart and should start, while the influential Granit Xhaka will return after he was suspended at the weekend. Key centre-back Jonathan Tah is a slight doubt with injury, while Victor Boniface is expected to get the nod ahead of Schick in attack.
Roma can at least avoid defeat
Leverkusen have been excellent this term, but I opposed them in the preview for Saturday's draw with Stuttgart, and I'll take them on again here. Roma's general form under De Rossi has been very strong, and their home form has been consistently good for months.
Bayer have drawn their last three games, and had to come from behind with late levellers in all of them. If you look at their away games against big hitters in the Bundesliga, they had to settle for draws at Bayern, Dortmund and Stuttgart, and their victory at Leipzig came courtesy of a last-gasp winner.
I'll back Roma +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.1211/10. If the game is drawn we get a half-win, and a home victory gives us a full pay-out at odds-against.
Mancini the key to Bet Builder
Centre-back Gianluca Mancini has become an icon for fans of the Giallorossi, who love his passion and his dedication. He further enhanced his reputation after the recent Rome derby win over Lazio, when he waved a giant Lazio flag with a rat on it. In the quarter-final against Milan, Mancini scored in both legs.
Mancini is something of a foul machine. He is joint-seventh in Serie A when it comes to fouls, and in the Europa League he has committed ten fouls in ten games. If he faces Boniface or Schick, he's in for a physical battle.
We can back Mancini to commit a foul, have a shot and for Bryan Cristante to commit at least two fouls at 23/103.30 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder. Italian international Mancini has had at least one shot in six of his last seven Europa League matches, and in Serie A he's managed four goals, which is pretty good going for a centre-back.
Cristante has committed the most fouls in Serie A (a whopping 70), and has picked up eight yellow cards. In the UEL he has three cautions and has made 11 fouls. Bayer will look to dominate possession, so I expect players like Cristante and Mancini to be doing a lot of chasing and defending.

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Roma v Bayer Leverkusen: De Rossi's men can strike first blow

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