Right now, Trump can do no wrong – except in Washington DC | OneFootball

Donald Trump set the Fourth of July as his deadline for the passage of his “Big Beautiful Bill”, which provides for tax cuts and a slew of other measures. With the odds seemingly stacked against him at the start of the week, Trump nonetheless met his goal with hours to spare.

The Bill was passed by the Senate thanks to the vice-president’s casting vote after a Republican revolt faded away. It then cleared the House of Representatives late on Thursday by four votes, after a Democrat attempt to talk the bill out failed. Expect a ceremonial signing on Independence Day, in another act of Trumpian political theatre.

Assuming no last-minute hitches, the “Big Beautiful Bill" will set the seal on six months that have left Trump with considerably more policy wins than losses – a tally that may not be fully appreciated on the European side of the Atlantic, where missteps loom larger than they do on the home front. There has been no end to the Ukraine war in the promised 24 hours, or indeed 24 weeks; no durable ceasefire in the Middle East; in place of a pledge to keep the US out of foreign wars, a military strike on Iran; an early exit from the G7 summit; and an ill-tempered split with his one-time guru Elon Musk.

Add the up-ending of the international trading order with an ever-changing set of tariffs, and some measures that seem very alien to many Europeans – such as seizing and summarily deporting undocumented migrants, with back-up from the national guard and the marines – and the impression might well be of disorder, inconsistency, maladministration and failure.

That is not, for the most part, however, how it looks from the Trump side of the Atlantic, where I have just bucked the international tourism trend by venturing on holiday. And it would probably be wise for Europeans to accept the truth: Trump has been testing the limits of presidential power and, more often than not, coming out on top.

Exactly a year ago, before he had even been re-elected president, a Supreme Court judgment upheld immunity from prosecution for past presidents. In recent weeks, the Supreme Court has largely upheld the scope of the executive orders that Trump issued by the dozen in his first days in power, as it also upheld his right to abolish so-called birthright citizenship – that anyone born in the US was a citizen by right. (A similar provision in the UK was abolished back in the early 1980s.)

He has won more cases than he has lost on his right to abolish entire government departments. An exception was a recent federal court ruling about the Department of Health, which had the effect of protecting those agencies set up by Congress. This could set a pattern for further defeats over the abolition of other Congress-approved agencies. But the ruling could also go to the Supreme Court, where there could be a different outcome.

Trump listens to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem speak at a migrant detention facility in Florida (AP)

So far, though, the contrast with Trump’s first term could hardly be sharper. Where in 2017 he seemed to meet obstructions at every step, and from every branch of power, 2025 has, so far, given him a relatively smooth ride. This is partly explained by the weakness of the Democrats, Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress, and the timidity of Republican opposition, along with the recognition that Trump won the popular vote.

It is also because, so far, negative fallout from his decisions has been localised. It has been felt most in Washington itself, a staunchly Democrat city anyway, with the federal government a dominant employer. It is here where the job losses, the dissolution of departments and agencies have been most keenly felt. Swingeing cuts have also affected foreign service and aid programmes. But none of this has great resonance elsewhere in the US – except to be lauded as part of what Trump in his first term dubbed “draining the swamp”.

There was resistance in Los Angeles, New York and a few other places to the immigration raids but, again, broad popular sympathy is on the president’s side. The same goes for the opening of a new pre-deportation facility in the southern Florida swamps, dubbed Alligator Alcatraz, after the notorious prison. Its accommodation would be decried in most of Europe; for many, though not all, Americans, serried ranks of metal bunks and fences like wire cages are the acceptable face of law enforcement.

Overall, Trump is being given credit for doing what he said he would do, and doing it fast – that includes extracting more defence cash from the Europeans and trying to “level the field” for US trade. His approval ratings fall short of a majority, hovering around 45 per cent, but that is still a lot higher than for many national leaders in this time of high public distrust of politicians.

These are early days, of course. New trade tariffs have yet to be finalised, let alone fed into US consumer prices. There may be adverse effects of the “Big Beautiful Bill”, which include poorer people losing health cover and states reducing the provision of food stamps, well before any macro effect, such as stoking the national debt, is felt. But a hard-nosed ethic of self-help limits the obligation many people feel towards their poorer compatriots. In this, as in many other ways, the US is very far from Europe.

With Trump’s possibly most controversial action – bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities – being successfully sold to his domestic constituency as a one-off American triumph, Trump can celebrate the first Independence Day of his second term riding high, and the opposition from Democrats, small-L liberals, federal employees past and present, and sections of the judiciary is not – at least not yet – on a scale to impede him.

The only clue as to where US politics might possibly go (a) next and (b) to oppose Trumpism came from last week’s surprise victory of a young left-wing populist in the recent Democratic primary contest for New York City mayor. It may mean nothing, or it could be a glimpse of where popular discontent might go should Trumpism fail its current followers.