Report: Is Liverpool’s €12m Chiesa Gamble Backed by Stats? | OneFootball

Liverpool’s Pursuit of Federico Chiesa: Gamble Worth Taking?

What’s Been Said

Well this is a bizarre one eh. The final days of the transfer window are always packed with drama, and this season is no different. In an unexpected twist, Liverpool have reportedly made an initial approach for Juventus winger Federico Chiesa.

According to Fabrizio Romano, the Italian forward is “available on the market as Juve want to find a solution” and Liverpool have already “made contact” with the player’s representatives. Romano highlights that Chiesa is keen on a Premier League move, with Liverpool currently exploring the conditions of a potential deal.

The key factor here is Juventus’ willingness to offload the 26-year-old, which could result in a cut-price transfer. For a player of Chiesa’s calibre, it’s an opportunity that Liverpool could see as too good to pass up.

The Key Stats

At 26 years old, Federico Chiesa is theoretically entering his prime years as a footballer. Standing at 1.75m, the Italian international operates primarily as a left winger but is capable of playing across the frontline.

Last season, Chiesa made 37 appearances in all competitions for Juventus, contributing 10 goals and 3 assists in over 2,500 minutes of play. However, his numbers tell only part of the story. Chiesa’s career has been marred by injuries, which is one of the primary reasons Juventus are open to parting ways with him.

Internationally, Chiesa has been capped 51 times by Italy, scoring 7 goals and solidifying himself as an important player for the Azzurri. Despite these impressive credentials, his recurring injury issues are an undeniable concern.

It’s this injury record that has raised eyebrows regarding whether he can perform consistently at the highest level, especially in the physically demanding Premier League.

Compare Him To

When comparing Chiesa to Liverpool’s current left winger, Luis Díaz, some interesting patterns emerge. Statistically, both players provide similar goal contributions, but there’s more beneath the surface. Chiesa’s expected goals (xG) and non-penalty expected goals (npxG) are relatively low compared to Díaz’s metrics, yet Diaz only ended with two more contributions.

Chiesa’s shot-creating actions, however, rank in the 99th percentile aginst his peers, underlining his ability to contribute creatively despite modest shooting numbers. He also excels in progressive carries (97th percentile) and successful take-ons (83rd percentile), showing that when fit, Chiesa can be a highly effective dribbler and ball-progressor.

However, there are doubts as to where Chiesa would fit into Liverpool’s attacking hierarchy. While his versatility allows him to play on either wing, he would most likely be competing as a backup to Mohamed Salah on the right. Given Salah’s consistency and Díaz’s growing importance on the left, Chiesa could find himself on the fringes if he were to make the move to Anfield. Moreover, the injury history can’t be ignored; it remains a considerable risk factor for any potential buyer. Chiesa doesn’t normally play on the right either.

Likelihood and Fee

From a financial perspective, this deal could be a calculated risk for Liverpool. Chiesa’s current market value is estimated at €35 million according to Transfermarkt, but rumours suggest Juventus may accept a fee closer to €12 million due to their desire to offload him.

The Italian side’s willingness to move him on at such a reduced price speaks volumes about their concerns over his long-term availability and fitness. Chiesa’s contract runs until 2025, meaning any deal would likely include a reasonable fee, given the circumstances. Wages are another factor, with the Italian winger reportedly earning a substantial amount at Juventus, something Liverpool would need to negotiate.

While the price is attractive, and Liverpool could see this as an opportunistic move, it’s hard not to feel this transfer would be more of a gamble than a surefire upgrade. Chiesa’s talent is undeniable, but the injury record, coupled with competition for places, makes it a risky proposition. As the window edges closer to closing, it’s certainly one to keep an eye on, but don’t be surprised if Liverpool decide to take a pass.