Football League World
·28 March 2024
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·28 March 2024
Pundit Carlton Palmer believes that Carlisle United, Fleetwood Town, Cheltenham Town and Port Vale will be relegated from League One this season.
It is shaping up to be an exciting end to the season at the bottom of the third tier, with a host of teams still in danger of dropping into League Two.
Relegation looks a certainty for Carlisle, who currently sit bottom of the table, and they are 15 points from safety following a run of 12 defeats in 14 games.
Fleetwood have improved significantly since Charlie Adam replaced Lee Johnson in December, and they are unbeaten in their last six league games, winning one and drawing five, but they are five points from safety.
Cheltenham also enjoyed a revival after the appointment of Darrell Clarke in September, but the Robins are without a win in their last six games, and they are four points from safety, although they do have a game in hand on those above them.
Port Vale gave their survival hopes a huge boost as they secured their first win under Darren Moore with a 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Burton Albion at the Pirelli Stadium on Saturday, and they are now just three points behind Cambridge United in 21st.
Garry Monk picked up a point in his first game as Cambridge manager in a 1-1 draw at home to Northampton Town, but his side have suffered a 6-0 defeat at Lincoln City and a 4-0 loss at Reading in their last two matches.
The U's are just three points clear of the relegation zone, and they are level on points with Burton, who are in a precarious position after five defeats in their last six games.
Speaking exclusively to Football League World, Palmer predicted that the current bottom four in League One will remain unchanged, but he believes that Port Vale and Cambridge could potentially swap places.
"I think, without a doubt, Carlisle United are down on 24 points, they can't get out of the situation they're in," Palmer said.
"Then it's very close, Fleetwood Town on 34, Cheltenham Town on 35, Port Vale on 36, Cambridge United on 39, Burton Albion on 39, all the way up to Reading on 42 points.
"I think Reading is the benchmark, I think they will get enough points to stay up.
"Around 47-49 points, that is the benchmark. "From the sides at the bottom, Burton have lost five out of their last six, Cambridge have lost five out of their last six. "Port Vale picked up their first win under Darren Moore in six games after three defeats and two draws. "I think Fleetwood will go down, I think Cheltenham will go down, and unfortunately, I think Port Vale will go down. "Cambridge are on 39 points, they're three points ahead of Port Vale, they just need to get a good couple of results and that can see them through. "With very few games left to go now, I think it's very difficult for the bottom sides. "Fleetwood are second from bottom, one win in six games, five draws, no defeats, but you have to string some wins together at the bottom to get out. "Burton haven't won in six, Cambridge haven't won in six, but I think they will get enough points to stay up. "The only thing that could change is Port Vale and Cambridge.
"As it stands at the moment, Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and Fleetwood, for me, are the four teams to go down, but maybe Port Vale might be able to leapfrog Cambridge."
It is incredibly difficult to call which teams will go down from League One this season.
Carlisle will be relegated, and their fate could be confirmed over the Easter weekend, but it remains to be seen who will be joining the Cumbrians.
Fleetwood and Cheltenham have improved in recent months, and they will both have hope of avoiding the drop, while picking up their first win under Darren Moore should give Port Vale confidence.
Given their poor recent form, Burton and Cambridge will be nervously looking over their shoulder, and the appointments of Martin Paterson and Garry Monk respectively have not yet worked out for the pair.
Staying up looks to be a big task for Fleetwood, but Port Vale and Cheltenham have a chance of catching the teams above them, and it would be no surprise to see one or both of them survive.