Probability model rates chances of Newcastle United winning v Leeds and getting success this season | OneFootball

Newcastle United travel to Leeds on Saturday and interesting to see what this probability model makes of Eddie Howe and his side’s chances of taking the three points.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches in this weekend round of games, including Leeds v Newcastle.

Their computer model gives Leeds a 23% chance of a win, it is 21% for a draw and a 56% possibility of a Newcastle United win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the rest of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now an 92% chance of finishing top four and getting Champions League football.

As for the competitors, the system gives the following probabilities of top four:

Arsenal 100%, Man City 100%, Man U 78%, Liverpool 29%, Brighton 1%.

As for relegation, the computer model doesn’t involve Newcastle United now as we are mathematically safe…

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Southampton most likely (99%) to be relegated, with then Leeds (72%), Leicester (65%) Forest (37%), Everton (27%).

At the very top they now rate Man City a 87% chance of finishing as champions and Arsenal a 13% chance of lifting the title, despite that win for the Gunners at St James’ Park.