Preview: Leverkusen and Dortmund match up for Topspiel shootout | OneFootball

In many ways, Matchday 21 will be a waywiser for Borussia Dortmund. The Black and Yellows have managed to get back up into third place with wins against midtable sides Augsburg, Köln and Union Berlin but the game away to fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen will mark the first real test in the Bundesliga in 2020.

Meanwhile, with Bayern Munich hosting RB Leipzig, this is one of the moments where Dortmund have to capitalise on at least one of the two teams above them dropping points. In a worst-case scenario, Dortmund could find themselves six points behind the Bavarians with the momentum all but gone in the wake of Tuesday’s embarrassing 3-2 cup loss away to Werder Bremen. In a best-case scenario, they could be one point off the lead.

The crux of BVB’s title ambitions thus far has been their subpar away form. In the new calendar year, Lucien Favre’s men have conceded three goals per game on average. In the “away table”, Dortmund are in fifth place averaging only 1.5 points per game, which is 0.9 off their 2.4 points per game average at the Westfalenstadion.

Now, there is a reason for optimism ahead of BVB’s trip to the BayArena. Dortmund are unbeaten in their last six matchups against the Werkself, winning five of them and Peter Bosz’s team are performing worse at home (1.6 pts/game) than on the road (1.8 pts/game).

Above all tactical tweaks, the Westphalians will have to make sure not to replicate another first half like the one at the Weserstadion, which was dubbed as “lame-assed, lazy and slow” by an irritated sporting director Michael Zorc. In that regard, it will be interesting to see what effect the absence of team captain Marco Reus will have. The 30-year-old, who picked up a muscular injury in Bremen and will be sidelined for five to six weeks, has not exactly shown the leadership to inspire his team to display the desperately needed hustle on the road but at the same time, it may get worse without him.

Like the mid-week cup match, Saturday’s Bundesliga Topspiel will be another test of character for the Black and Yellows. Especially against a Leverkusen side that easily bends and breaks.

Though, the duel between Bosz and Favre isn’t only decided by virtues and power of will. With two somewhat clashing footballing philosophies, there will be plenty of tactical intrigue and drama that should yield in plenty of entertainment for the neutral observer.

One of the main questions will be whether the Dutch coach’s dominatrix style will once again lead to self-punishment. In the past two confrontations, the Rhineside averaged ca. 66 percent possession, situationally starving the Black and Yellows down to just 12 percent of the ball within 10-minute segments. Saturday’s guests aren’t necessarily used to playing with so little possession, however, at the same time they are the Bundesliga’s most lethal side on the counter and with the addition of Erling Haaland, they just became even more vicious on the break.

Over the course of the season, Favre’s men have refined their counter-pressing to the extent that it helped break down teams that apply a defensive low block like Union Berlin most recently. The opportunities that a semi-organised Leverkusen highline could yield are simply mouthwatering. Jadon Sancho, Thorgan Hazard, Achraf Hakimi, Raphael Guerreiro and especially Julian “through ball” Brandt are all likely to wreak havoc.

And this game should be predestined for Mats Hummels’ famous outside-of-the boot passes behind the defence.

Passes behind the line, in general, should highly effective due to the fact that Leverkusen keeper Lukas Hradecky only ranks seventh in FBREF.com’s ‘number of defensive actions outside of the penalty area’ metric. The average distance of defensive actions outside from goal of 15.4 yards also only ranks seventh behind sides like Hoffenheim and Augsburg, which hints at the 30-year-old’s reluctance to assume the role of a bold sweeper-keeper in a team whose playing style actually desperately requires it.

The flipside of the coin, however, is that left-winger Moussa Diaby will inevitably run rings around BVB’s most acute problem zone. The partnership of Manuel Akanji and Hakimi on the right side is constantly inventing new ways to be error-prone and has its structural issues quickly exposed when the opponent applies a high, intense pressing in the zone around Dortmund’s right penalty area and corner flag.

Favre’s side either loses the ball directly in a dangerous zone like Hakimi did before Bremen’s first goal on Tuesday or their clearances land with an opposing midfielder who then finds BVB’s backline off guard and with a lot of green in front of him.

Kevin Volland and Karim Bellarabi will also likely expose Dortmund’s lack of speed at the back, which will set the stage for a happy shootout. So don’t be surprised if Roman Bürki will be crowned the game’s MVP when all is set and done.

In the Ruhr side’s 4-0 Hinrunde win over Leverkusen, the man of the match was actually Thomas Delaney who successfully man-marked starlet Kai Havertz out of the game. That tactical ploy won’t be available this time around and it’s questionable whether Brandt or Witsel could do it with the same effect. The 20-year-old may provide a headache which even Bayer’s own Aspirin can’t cure.

It may be Bosz who will play the tactical wildcard this time around. Without the suspended Kerem Demirbay in midfield, he may opt for Julian Baumgartlinger. Due to Leverkusen’s playing style, Dortmund may punt the ball more often down the field and hope to pick up the second ball via counter-pressing. The 6ft tall midfielder may be a key component in negating that particular plan so watch out for the 32-year-old brutalising Borussia’s kids in midfield.

Lastly, this matchup will arguably be the biggest test yet for Gio Reyna. The 17-year-old scored a golazo against Werder Bremen for his first senior goal. Whether as a starter or as a late sub, against Leverkusen’s frantic style he will need to keep his composure.

In many regards, a lot is on the line for Borussia Dortmund and Lucien Favre in this game. Getting within three points of the lead was crucial but now is not the time to let up but rather to send a signal in the direction of Munich and Leipzig.