Premier League Tips: Why West Ham can beat Liverpool at 15/2 | OneFootball

English Premier League

West Ham are 15/2 to win at Anfield

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - in his latest Notebook provides the case to back West Ham to win at Liverpool on Sunday at a massive price...

Betfair Saturday Superboost

Aston Villa' January  Transfer Window signing Marco Asensio has enjoyed a fine start at his new club, becoming one of Villa's key goalscoring threats.

The Spaniard has registered 11 shots on target in his last seven games, and on Saturday, against the Premier League's bottom club Southampton you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/1 (from 2/5) to have at least one shot on target.

To take advantage of this latest Betfair Superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

Sat footy Pod

Football... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.

🔗 Spotify

The numbers behind Salah's recent decline

Liverpool are in danger of stumbling over the Premier League line.

Should we be surprised though that their levels have dropped? They have had this coming with their poor long-term planning regarding the contract situations with Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander Arnold.

There was always a chance that these issues would affect the overall level of team performance as it's just such a unique situation with three of your key players all not knowing where they'll be playing football next season.

There have been reports of a breakthrough in the talks for Salah and Van Dijk - but it looks to be taking its toll especially on Salah's form.

His drop off over the last eight games has been quite alarming. Both using the eye test where he's looked a little disillusioned and anonymous in some big games.

And, the numbers back that up.

Every key metric has nosedived in terms of his output.

The key one is his non-penalty goal return. He was working at a 0.6 ratio per game across his first 37 matches this season where he netted 20 non-penalty goals. That figure is now at 0.1 per 90 across his last eight games after his goal against Manchester City in the 2-0 win in February. He hasn't scored since, barring penalties against Southampton.

His shots per game is down from 3.7 to 1.9. Shots on target from 1.9 to 0.8.

And the really interesting one from just a general sharpness and physicality point of view is his duel success which is down from 43.3 per cent to 32.1 per cent.

We've got good evidence here to support that Salah isn't anywhere near his best form - so, such is his influence on this Liverpool team, it makes sense that their results have taken a hit.

They host West Ham on Sunday, looking to move closer to the Premier League title and are as short as 1.34 on the Betfair Exchange to win the game. That looks a price worth laying, not only based on the Salah factor but also on Graham Potter's excellent record away from home against elite opposition.

Potter to wave his magic wand at Anfield?

In his last 10 games managing away from home against a team that finished in the top three that season, Potter has avoided defeat on six occasions. It's a very impressive return across when you factor in the level of opposition in Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United.

But what really impressed me when looking at those matches is the overall aggregate score in those 12 games: it reads Potter's teams 8-12 Opposition.

And the expected goals aggregate were very close over that time too, reading Potter's teams 0.85-1.3 Opposition.

It's incredibly strong underlying numbers that back up the actual results.

Already in his time at West Ham, Potter has taken his team to Arsenal and won, drew at Aston Villa and only lost narrowly to Chelsea. So, his message is getting across to his new club and I'm expecting them to be very competitive at Anfield on Sunday.

15/2 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Premier League Player Stats Sheet: Back a fast start for Bees and Hammers duo at Anfield

Recommended bets

Back West Ham to beat Liverpool @ 15/2