Premier League Tips: Back Declan Rice to score 10 or more goals at 8/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Lewis Jones has found a cracking bet in the total goals markets for Arsenal's Rice

Lewis Jones returns with his weekly Notebook column for Betfair and makes a strong argument for why backing Declan Rice to score 10 or more Premier League goals this season at 8/1 is a fantastic long-term punt...

Why Rice is a very nice price

On the face of it, Declan Rice's return of just four Premier League goals last season makes it hard to fathom why there's any value in taking the 8/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook on him registering 10 or more in the Premier League this season.

But there is more than meets the eye to this bet. It's cracking value and has a serious chance of landing.

Rice was signed by Arsenal to play at base of their midfield when he made his £105m move from West Ham, but it is becoming increasingly clear that his future lies further forward. Not only have Arsenal signed two number sixes this summer in Martin Zubimendi and Christian Norgaard, the England midfielder showed on countless occasions last season that he is equipped to thrive in a more advanced role.

Rice has now actually started more games for Arsenal at No 8 than at No 6, with 58 to 44.

The heat maps suggest he's taking up more attack-minded positions in this role, something backed up by the eye test. There is great timing to Rice's runs into the penalty box, something noticed by Wayne Rooney on punditry last season.

And when Rice gets into those positions, he is technically very astute at finding a crisp finish.

Striking the ball is a very natural thing for Rice, as it has to be if you are to score two free-kicks in one game against Real Madrid in a Champions League knockout game. I'd expect him to fire home multiple goals from dead ball situations now he's grabbed the right to be Arsenal's chief set-piece taker.

Data points to Rice thriving in attack

Rice's overall data is also very compelling when looking at his attacking returns.

Those 58 starts in the No 8 position have featured 13 goals and 18 assists in total - so 31 goal involvements.

That's an impressive return for a midfielder who has yet to really master the role and one that is open to so much improvement.

Rice can be trusted to find such improvement, too. He is a master at taking on information and using it to his advantage in his game. Season-on-season he has taken his game to the next level, much like Harry Kane has done throughout his career. The art of listening has not been lost on Rice.

So, if we run those numbers of his goal return in the No. 8 role, we can calculate he is scoring every four-and-a-half games. If he continues on that average throughout a 38-game Premier League season the numbers suggest he'll score just over eight goals this season.

That's without factoring in the expected improvement within his output. A little overperformance here or there and bang, we're at the killer 10 goals number at a price which doesn't assume the true probability.

Get on.

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Back Declan Rice to score 10+ PL goals @ 8/1