Premier League Saturday Tips: Back 11/1 Merseyside derby shout and Man City at 5/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

From set-pieces McNeil usually delivers

Ste Tudor focuses on longer odds for his best bets ahead of five fascinating top-flight clashes this Saturday...

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Everton v Liverpool (12:30) - Player apiece backed at huge 11/1

This fixture's habit of producing draws cannot be ignored. The data is compelling: in the last 12 Merseyside derbies held at Goodison nine have finished all-square. Six have been goalless.

It feels doubtful that another 0-0 awaits, what with Everton rediscovering where the opposition net is in midweek after going six hours without scoring. Their comprehensive bettering of Wolves was only the second time they've scored 4+ in a league game since 2020.It's pertinent that all four - plus one ruled out - came from set-pieces. Free-kicks and corners will be key for the hosts this weekend, demanding accurate deliveries from Dwight McNeil.

As for the Reds, another multi-goal thriller against Newcastle can be added to that fixture's back-catalogue, which is full of them, and once again Arne Slot's men sparked fully into life after the break. It's been a pattern of their season.

No team has conceded fewer in the second period and only Spurs have scored more. It's a trend mirrored by Mo Salah who remarkably has fired 12 of his 13 goals this term in the second 45. Backing the second-half to have the most goals tempts at 1/1. But let's go with two players tipped to heavily feature.

Aston Villa v Southampton (15:00) - Saints at sea

Six weeks of consternation and frustration dissipated into the Midlands air on Wednesday evening when Villa ended a five-game winless run by putting Brentford well and truly to the sword.

The visitors faced 20 attempts all told and the Villans' three-goal haul would have been much greater if not for Bees keeper Mark Flekken making seven saves.

In part, Villa's vibrancy and confidence was propelled by Ollie Watkins producing one of his best performances for a while and the forward would be fancied in the shot market here if not for a nagging suspicion he may be rested for Jhon Duran. Tougher tests await Villa this month.

That's because the Saints appear to be broken again after showing some semblance of fight in recent weeks. Against Chelsea their defending was comical at times with yet another individual mistake at the back - this time courtesy of keeper Joe Lumley - adding to their woes.

At least at the other end they can offer up a threat, especially with Tyler Dibley back from suspension and Cameron Archer striving, if not thriving.

It's notable that Unai Emery's side have kept just one clean sheet all season.

Brentford v Newcastle (15:00) - Jekylls and Hydes

The Bees' contrasting home and away form is something to behold. At the Gtech, Wissa and co are unbeaten, racking up 2.7 points per game and scoring 3.1 goals per 90. On their travels, they are winless, eking out a single draw in seven. They have converted 0.7 per 90.

This Saturday they encounter another Jekyll and Hyde side but surely the Magpies will be emboldened by Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak firing on all cylinders against Liverpool in midweek.

With 12 goal involvements between them, when both sides are on song Newcastle are an infinitely greater proposition. Here the Magpies take on a defence that has kept just one shut-out all term.

This fixture has played out three times before at the Gtech, with the visitors leaving with the points each time, but we cannot overlook Brentford's sublime form at home. The same goes incidentally for Yoane Wissa.

Seven of the forward's eight goals have come in west London while he has taken on 16 shots on home soil - 3.2 per 90 - compared to just four away.

Crystal Palace v Man City (15:00) - 8/1 on champs' recovery

The Sky Blues have not lost at Selhurst Park during the Pep Guardiola era but typically they are often made to work hard here for their spoils. There is a couple of 0-0 stalemates in there too.

Palace will be on a high after securing only their second victory of 2024/25 in midweek. They will be further bolstered by Eberechi Eze getting another hour or so under his belt at Portman Road after injury. The winger has averaged 3.6 shots per 90 this term along with 2.1 key passes. He improves the Eagles frontline ten-fold.

Really, though, this is all about City and where they currently are on a new trajectory. Those brave enough to back against them in recent weeks have cashed in a bonanza but a restorative win over Forest in midweek suggests now is the time to stop all that.

Yes, City are still conceding clear-cut chances, and yes, Erling Haaland has only scored twice in his last nine league outings, but there was enough about City's performance against Forest to intimate that the worst is over. Jack Grealish especially impressed in a number eight role, the midfielder fouled four times.

The champions' corner count has remained high amidst their recent turmoil and they have scored inside 35 minutes in each of their eight league victories this term.

Man United v Nottingham Forest (17:30) - Troublesome visitors

Right now Ruben Amorim is playing snooker with a pool cue and it's impossible to know who United are, and what they might be capable of. It's actually easier to predict the future, with brighter times ahead under the exceptional coach.

A first defeat of the Amorim era at the Emirates saw the Reds well-organised in the first half but slip into some bad old habits thereafter, and almost inevitably this led to big chances (5) being conceded. For their part, United carved out none against Arsenal.

Forest have shipped in three goals three times over in recent weeks but remain in a good place, cleverly crafting decent opportunities against Manchester City on Wednesday. With Callum Hudson-Odoi back in the starting line-up they are fancied to trouble United, if not prevail.

Kobbie Mainoo returns for the hosts after suspension and the young midfielder is always good for a card, picking up five yellows in his last seven appearances.

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