Premier League Relegation: 12-year trends suggest Leicester and Ipswich likely to go back down | OneFootball

English Premier League

Is Russell Martin's Southampton best equipped of the promoted clubs to survive?

Mike Norman looks at the trends of the last 36 clubs to be promoted to the Premier League, telling us that, like the odds suggest, Leicester City and Ipswich Town are worthy favourites to go straight back down to the Championship...

Premier League new boys favs to go straight back down

Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are the three clubs most likely to be relegated from the Premier League this season according to the Betfair Sportsbook.

The three newly-promoted clubs are available to back at 8/15 (Leicester), 17/20 (Ipswich) and 11/10 (Southampton) respectively in Betfair's Premier League Relegation market, and those odds are perhaps influenced by the growing perception that the gulf between the top two tiers of English football is becoming increasingly wider.

And of course, last season we witnessed all three newly-promoted clubs from the previous Championship campaign - Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town - go straight back down.

So will we see a repeat this season? What do the recent trends tell us?

A 47.2% record of being immediately relegated

Looking at the trends of the last 36 clubs to be promoted from the Championship over the last 12 seasons, a simple statistic tells us that 17 of them were relegated from the Premier League the following season.

That stat literally translates into each of the Foxes, Saints and Tractor Boys having a 47.2% chance of being relegated this term. But delving into the trends further reveals some fascinating statistics about newly-promoted clubs.

Below is a list of all 36 clubs to be promoted during the 12 seasons from the 2011/12 Championship campaign, together with the number of points they accumulated in that promotion season, and in brackets, when that club was next relegated from the Premier League.

Key:

- SBD = Straight Back Down- SS = Second Season- NRS = Not Relegated Since- 3 (or any other number) = Number of seasons before being relegated

2011/12

- Reading: 89 (SBD)- Southampton: 88 (11) - West Ham: 86 (NRS)

2012/13

- Cardiff: 87 (SBD)- Hull: 79 (SS)- Crystal Palace: 72 (NRS)

2013/14

- Leicester: 102 (9)- Burnley: 93 (SBD)- QPR: 80 (SBD)

2014/15

- Bournemouth: 90 (5)- Watford: 89 (5)- Norwich: 86 (SBD)

2015/16

- Burnley: 93 (6)- Middlesbrough: 89 (SBD)- Hull: 83 (SBD)

2016/17

- Newcastle: 94 (NRS)- Brighton: 93 (NRS)- Huddersfield: 81 (SS)

2017/18

- Wolves: 99 (NRS)- Cardiff: 90 (SBD)- Fulham: 88 (SBD)

2018/19

- Norwich: 94 (SBD)- Sheffield United: 89 (SS)- Aston Villa: 76 (NRS)

2019/20

- Leeds: 93 (3)- West Brom: 83 (SBD)- Fulham: 81 (SBD)

2020/21

- Norwich: 97 (SBD)- Watford: 91 (SBD)- Brentford: 87 (NRS)

2021/22

- Fulham: 90 (NRS)- Bournemouth: 88 (NRS)- Nottm Forest: 80 (NRS)

2022/23

- Burnley: 101 (SBD)- Sheffield United: 91 (SBD)- Luton: 80 (SBD)

In summary then, and as we've already mentioned, 17 (47.22%) of the 36 promoted clubs went straight back down the following season.

Also of interest is that the 'Second Season Syndrome' theory seems to be debunked here, with only three (8.33%) of the 36 clubs going on to be relegated in their second season back in the Premier League. However, that percentage climbs to 15.79% when you consider that, because 17 clubs went straight back down, only 19 clubs could possibly have been relegated in their second season.

Of the 36 promoted clubs a total of 10 (27.78%) have not been relegated since joining the Premier League, while Leeds United were relegated in their third season after promotion, Bournemouth and Watford in their fifth season, Burnley in their sixth, Leicester in their ninth and Southampton were relegated 11 seasons after being promoted to the Premier League in 2012.

Summary:

*number = amount of clubs in each category

- Straight Back Down: - 17 (47.22%)- Relegated in Second Season:- 3 (8.33%)- Not Relegated Since: - 10 (27.78)- Relegated after three seasons: 1 (2.78%)- Relegated after five seasons: - 2 (5.56%)- Relegated after six seasons: - 1 (2.78%)- Relegated after nine seasons: - 1 (2.78%)- Relegated after 11 seasons: - 1 (2.78%)

Storming the Championship not key to survival

It would stand to reason that the more points you accumulate in gaining promotion from the Championship, the better team you are going into the Premier League, and therefore the better chance you have of survival.

But that's not necessarily the case. Take Norwich for example. The Canaries won the Championship with 94 points in the 2018/19 season, while Aston Villa accumulated just 76 points before being promoted via the play-offs. The following season Norwich went straight back down while Villa have since remained a Premier League club.

Norwich, again, in 2020/21 gained promotion with 97 points but went straight back down the following season, while only last term Burnley were relegated from the Premier League just 12 months after winning the Championship with 101 points!

In recent seasons the gap between the Premier League and the best Championship teams appears to be widening with just three (33.3%) of the last nine clubs to win promotion with at least 90 points avoiding the drop the following season, as opposed to five (83.3%) of the previous six avoiding relegation having won promotion with 90+ points.

Promoted with 90+ points:

- Last 12 seasons: 15 in total with 7 (46.67%) going straight back down the following year- Last 6 seasons: 9 in total with 6 (66.67%) going straight back down the following year

This appears to be bad news for both Leicester and Ipswich who won promotion with 97 and 96 points respectively. But is it good new for Southampton who were promoted via the play-offs after accumulating 87 points? You bet it is!

Saints can glean hope from previous play-off winners

Southampton may have won promotion via the play-offs last term, but statistically they have the best chance of survival among the three promoted clubs if we concentrate only on the trends of the last 12 seasons.

From the last 10 teams to be promoted to the Premier League that have since yet to be relegated, exactly half of them (50%) were play-off winners. From the remaining five, three (30%) won the Championship title and two (20%) finished as runners-up in their promotion seasons.

Another good stat for the Saints is that from the 21 clubs to be promoted from the Championship with fewer than 90 points, less than half of them, 10 (47.62%), were relegated the following season. And that stat improves in recent seasons with only three (37.5%) of the last eight clubs to gain promotion with fewer than 90 points going straight back down.

Promoted with <90 points:

Premier League Relegation Odds:

- Leicester 8/15- Ipswich 17/20- Southampton 11/10- Nottm Forest 2/1- Everton 9/4- Wolves 3/1- Brentford 4/1- Fulham 5/1- BAR 13/2

*odds correct as of 16:00 Saturday 20 July