Premier League Golden Boot Trends: Can 40/1 Gakpo, 10/1 Salah or 20/1 Isak rival Haaland? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Can you believe Salah was as big as 40/1 in 2017-18?

It will be no surprise to punters that Erling Haaland is the odds-on favourite to win a third Golden Boot in a row, but can the last seven seasons of data help us pick out a potential rival? Let's have a look...

I hear you, wondering.

Has any player ever won the Premier League Golden Boot in three successive seasons?

If the answer is no, then surely Haaland's odds of 8/11 to win the award again can be taken on; think of all the world-class talent to grace the Premier League since its inception in 1992, and if not one has managed that feat, why would Haaland be any different, robot or not?

Well, and I don't think this is a full bubble-burster, one player has.

Shearer the Golden Boot trends-buster

Step forward Betfair ambassador Alan Shearer - the only man to scoop the top goalscorer gong in three straight Premier League campaigns, doing so between 1994-95 & 1996-97. However, would you then believe me that he never lifted it again?

The reason I say it should not fully deter you is the fact it has only happened once, and, hasn't happened at all in over 25 years. Historical records are on your side if you want to take on Haaland.

Sure, he is probably only getting better at the tender age of 24, but, is it inconceivable that he doesn't have it all his own way in 2024-25? He could suffer a loss of form (unlikely), a long term injury (possibly), or, be dropped from the team altogether (impossible).

He could though, suffer from Pep Roulette, especially if Copa America winner Julian Alvarez demands more playing time, if reports are to be believed.

All I'm saying is, a player who went off at 4/7 on the opening day last season, and is currently 8/11 going into this one, is not a guarantee to become only the second player in 32 years to win it in three straight seasons.

So, who could help our narrative?

What are the recent price trends?

The average price of the last seven players to score the most goals in a Premier League season is between 13/1 and 14/1 (including ties).

Haaland was 2/1 before he first kicked a Premier League ball, but those wily Betfair Traders were not to be fooled a second time around following his record-breaking 36 goal campaign. Last season, as mentioned, he would go off at 4/7.

He managed 27 goals last season in 31 appearances, nine fewer goals and four fewer matches; it was not quite all plain-sailing. I will say, though, he did finish with seven goals in his last five league games, four of which came against Wolves.

Cole Palmer, though, at one stage pulled up alongside Haaland on 20 goals in April.

Pre-Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Son Heung-Min shared the award in 2021-22, at odds of 7/2 and 25/1 respectively.

Harry Kane scooped his third gong in 2020-21 at a price of 4/1, whilst Jamie Vardy in 2019-20 banged in 23 goals to fnish top of the tree at 11/1. Not bad for a 33-year-old and a reminder to not rule out a bet solely on age.

Three players shared the award in 2018-19 - Pierre Emerick Aubameyang 11/2, Mohamed Salah 5/1 and Sadio Mane at 30/1. They all finished on 22 Premier League goals.

Now here's the big one.

Mo Salah's first of three Golden Boots came in 2017-18 - his first season at Liverpool, and what a season it was. The Egyptian King banged in 32 league goals in his debut campaign for the Reds, with only Harry Kane (30) anywhere close. Third on the list that season was Sergio Aguero, with 21.

Salah's price on the opening day of the season was a huge 40/1 as he became the first African player to win the award since Didier Drogba in 2009-10. It may have been seven years ago, but somewhat unknown quantities (at the time) can surprise us in the Golden Boot market. Just look at the average price odds of Haaland's closest competitors last season.

Cole Palmer - 19/1Aleksandar Isak - 20/1Phil Foden - 59/1Dominic Solanke - 60/1Ollie Watkins - 20/1Mohamed Salah - 9/1Son Heung-Min - 27/1Jarrod Bowen - 65/1Jean Phillipe-Mateta - (no backers)Bukayo Saka - 33/1

So who can we back to beat Haaland?

Haaland's odds-on price means the second favourite - Mohamed Salah - is at a double figure price of 10/1.

Those aren't bad odds about a man who is one of just four players in Premier League history to win the Golden Boot on at least three occasions, alongside Alan Shearer, Harry Kane and Thierry Henry (4 times).

It remains to be seen how Arne Slot and Liverpool will fare though, and if Salah will be impacted. I wouldn't put you off Liverpool attackers however, considering Slot is well known for his uber-attacking approach; his Feyenoord side netted 249 goals across his three league seasons, at 2.44 goals per game. For context, only Man City (2.55) can better than average of Premier League sides over the same time-frame, with Klopp's Liverpool down at 2.23.

Teammate Darwin Nunez is 14/1, whilst 2023-24 runner-up Cole Palmer is 16/1 following his superb 22-goal haul. England hero, Ollie Watkins, who bagged 19, is priced at 14/1.

The concern for Watkins may be his added Champions League campaign this season perhaps won't benefit his league form. One to watch.

Aleksandar Isak at 20/1 is also hard to ignore considering he has netted 31 goals in just 52 Premier League games, whilst Bukayo Saka (16 last season) is 33/1 and Haaland's teammate and Premier League Player of the Season for 2023-24, Phil Foden, is 40/1 following his 19 goals last season. With Betfair paying quarter odds for the first four places, you'd have made a decent return on Foden.

Go for Gakpo

I've mentioned the intrigue behind Liverpool's forwards under their new manager, and their unpredictability could help us unearth a somewhat-hidden gem.

For those who want a bigger price, step forward Euro 2024 Golden Boot winner Cody Gakpo (yes, I know he shared it with five other players, typical UEFA).

At 40/1, could he do what Mohamed Salah did in 2017-18 and claim the award at the same price the Egyptian went off that season? Maybe.

It will be his role in the team that dictates his output, but I think he could be Slot's preferred versatile #9 that Darwin Nunez is not.

Does it help us that player and manager are both Dutch? Not sure I have the courage to say that will be a factor in team selection, but it might not hurt.

Gakpo netted just eight times last season - one more than in the year before (7), though he is yet to nail down a starting position in the team, and, played a fair number of minutes at the tip of a midfield three. I think if he's handed the reigns from the start of the season as the main striker, his goal output will naturally improve.

He sat in the top 10 in the Premier League for shots per 90 last season at 3.5, though a quarter of his attempts came from outside the box.

If we compare that to Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland, who had less than 6% of his attempts from outside the area (7/121), it highlights a big difference in their positions on the grass, and I am wondering if we get Gakpo closer to goal, his returns may not disappoint in an ever-attacking Arne Slot side.

Gakpo's shot conversion rate was 12.1% in the Premier League (8 goals from 66 shots), slightly worse than Mo Salah (15.8%) but better than Darwin Nunez (10%). Nunez managed 11 goals from 108 shots, but routinely underperformed his xG, with his 11 strikes coming from 15.4 non-penalty Expected Goals.

Gakpo, meanwhile, generated 8.96 xG, scoring eight times, meaning he pretty much netted the chances he was expected to score over the season. We just need him to be shooting from more dangerous positions to increase his total.

The case isn't needed for Mohamed Salah, and he is well worth a punt at a double figure price of 10/1 in what could be an attacking side for the ages from Arne Slot, and well, perhaps Dutchman Slot can help Gakpo hit the jackpot, and at 40/1, why should Haaland have it all his own way?

Recommended bets

Back Mohamed Salah to win the Golden Boot @ 10/1

Back Cody Gakpo to win the Golden Boot EW @ 40/1