Portugal’s Primeira Liga: who’s winning it in 2023/24? | OneFootball

It’s that time of year again when no matter which club you support, a healthy dollop of optimism, usually misplaced, gets the better of us as we look forward to the new football season.

After all, every team starts on zero points so we all start joint top of the league!

PortuGOAL previews what may happen in the title race over the next nine months, raising the biggest question marks surrounding the title contenders in the newly named Liga Portugal Betclic.

Portuguese league more competitive than at first sight

Portuguese football is often bad-mouthed for its lack of competitiveness at the top. While it is true that only three clubs can realistically aspire to become champions, is that really any different to other top European leagues?

In Germany and France the champions are practically certain before a ball has been kicked. In Spain it’s one from two. Even in the supposedly super-competitive English Premier League, Manchester City have won the title in five of the last six years. The EPL odds will surely make the Citizens huge favourites to lift the crown again.

Yet in Portugal the last three years have seen three different winners. Moreover, no club has managed to retain the Primeira Liga title in the last six seasons, with the champions constantly alternating between the cities of Porto and Lisbon in that time.

Stability at the top

One crucial factor suggests the Big Three will all head into the new season in good shape. All three have a well-established coach overseeing their football operation.

Sérgio Conceição is Porto’s longest-serving post-war head coach, as he begins his 7th season in the dugout at the Estádio do Dragão. Should Rúben Amorim make it to the end of the season, he will achieve a similar feat at Alvalade, outlasting Paulo Bento’s four-year stint to become Sporting’s longest-serving post-war coach.

And while Benfica’s Roger Schmidt has only been in the Portuguese capital for one season, it was such a roaring success that club and manager have sworn allegiance to each other, materialised in the form of a contract until 2026.

All quiet of the transfer outgoing front

Fans of Portugal’s top teams usually spend summer on tenterhooks as their club’s top players are linked with a move away to every club under the sun. However, the 2023 summer transfer market has been unusually benevolent to Portugal’s Três Grandes so far.

Sporting’s Manuel Ugarte is the only big name to leave the league, and the Lions have been quick to reinvest, splashing out €20 million – a record fee – to sign highly-rated Swedish striker Victor Gyökeres.

There is a strong argument to be made that all three of the traditional title contenders could be stronger than they were last season. Here is a breakdown of the pros and cons for each of the three club’s title aspirations in 2023/24.

Benfica:

He came, he saw, he conquered. Roger Schmidt could not have made a better impression in his first season in Portugal. The German immediately instituted a high-pressing, easy-on-the eye, attacking style of play at Benfica, with spectacular results, especially during an unbeaten first half of the season. The loss of Enzo Fernández in the January transfer window led to a drop-off in form, but with Ángel Di María returning and Turkish midfielder Orkan Kokçu another exciting new signing, and having resisted reported overtures for the likes of Gonçalo Ramos, Rafa Silva and António Silva thus far, Benfica will start favourites to finish top of the pile.

Pros: Portugal usually makes transfer market headlines in summer owing to big-money sales, but the signing of Di María brings a genuine worldwide superstar back to the Luz. Moreover, Benfica have the winning momentum. Last season was Rui Costa’s first as president and Roger Schmidt’s first as coach. It felt like a fresh start. Could we be witnessing a new era of dominance by Benfica?

Cons: In a bloated squad, will it be possible to keep everyone happy? President Rui Costa has made it clear he wants serious ambition in the Champions League, but will that prove a drain on the league campaign? Battling recent history: no Portuguese champions have retained the title in the last six years.

FC Porto:

Sérgio Conceição’s abrasive personality has drawn plenty of criticism but his fierce competitiveness should not distract from the fact Conceição has done a miraculous job at the Estádio do Dragão, producing high-quality teams that have been in the running for every domestic trophy going since his arrival, not to mention several laudable campaigns in Europe. All while having to contend with financial fair play restrictions. It is too simple to say it’s down to imparting a never-say-die attitude amongst the whole squad. Conceição is a quality coach.

Pros: An idol for Porto in his playing days, Conceição is the perfect coach for the northerners and will produce a powerful outfit, whatever hand he is dealt in terms of players available. Since taking over in 2017, Porto have never finished outside the top two and have never gone two seasons without winning the league. Midfield lynchpin Otávio staying is a huge boost.

Cons: Notwithstanding the excellent results, Porto’s squad over recent years has become increasingly bereft of footballers of the highest class. Long gone are the days of Falcao, James Rodríguez, Jackson Martínez, Hulk, Luiz Díaz: genuine world-beaters who could win a game on their own. If David Carmo continues to struggle, the reliance on 40-year-old Pepe and 36-year-old Marcano at the heart of defence is surely a big risk. Can the Dragons as a whole keep outperforming the sum of their parts?

Sporting:

Rúben Amorim has been a breath of fresh air ever since he walked into Alvalade, his intelligence, positivity and competence making Sporting a force again after years in the shadows of their two major rivals. His ability to improve individual players has been outstanding, with the big-money sales and ongoing success of likes of the Nuno Mendes, João Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Pedro Porro and Manuel Ugarte testament to his coaching skills. As ever though, the financial disparity between Sporting and the other two contenders makes overcoming them the toughest of asks.

Pros: An obvious weakness of the Amorim era appears to have been addressed. Have Sporting finally acquired a player who can score 30 goals in a season in the shape of centre-forward Viktor Gyökeres? As alluded to above, Amorim has proved a master at enhancing the footballing ability of young talent. In Ousmane Diomande, Francisco Trincão, Marcus Edwards, and the back-from-injury Daniel Bragança, Sporting have a handful of players with the potential to explode. Less demanding European commitments: Sporting are in the Europa League and not the Champions League, which theoretically could benefit the team’s league campaign.

Cons: Question marks remain over Sporting’s wing-backs, absolutely crucial cogs in Amorim’s 3-4-3 system. It is no coincidence that the team has failed to hit the heights of Amorim’s first full season when he had Nuno Mendes and Pedro Porro occupying those positions. Can Ricardo Esgaio and Nuno Santos offer what is needed? Amorim has strong convictions about how he wants to play, never changing the tactical setup, but does it make Sporting too predictable?

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