Portugal v Czech Republic: Back the Selecao to silence Czechia | OneFootball

Portugal v Czech Republic Tuesday June 18, 20:00Live on BBC

Portugal packing plenty of punch

Portugal have reached the European Championship semi-finals in four of their last six continental appearances and the Selecao have been well backed to repeat that feat this summer. Robert Martinez's star-studded squad sauntered through qualification, boasting a 100% record, scoring the most goals and conceding the fewest en-route to Germany.

The Euro 2016 champions now represent a vibrant and versatile international outfit under Martinez, with the former Belgium boss releasing the shackles following the functional Fernando Santos era. Portugal are now a punchy, proactive side packed with skill, style, grit and grunt with no obvious weakness coming into the competition.

Portugal have posted W13-D0-L2 since a quarter-final exit at the World Cup - both defeats have arrived in friendlies this year with the latest against Croatia dampening spirits back home. Yet the Selecao remain rightful outright contenders and Martinez has implored the public to "dream big", fuelling hope and expectation that silverware could be in the offing.

Chaotic year for Czech Republic

The Czech Republic have thrived on the continental circuit, qualifying for eight successive European Championship finals. Although the Lions have struggled to reach the World Cup during that same sample, the national team have twice reached the Euros semi-finals, including earning a historic silver medal back at Euro '96 as enormous 80/1 underdogs.

It's difficult to envisage the current crop replicating that success this summer. A chaotic qualifying campaign saw the Czechs change coaches as recently as January with Ivan Hasek stepping into the breach. The experience boss has demanded his team don't "play naïve football", saying "we want to be unpredictable before the Euros and cause a surprise."

Doing so might be difficult with the tools at Hasek's disposal, though the return of star striker Patrik Schick will be paramount to any potential success. The Czechs will prioritise prudence in their opener, with their disciplined approach reliant on being reactive on the counter-attack, whilst a solid set-piece threat makes the Lions dangerous from dead-balls.

Selecao strong favourites to succeed

Portugal were strong operators when facing off against Czech Republic in the Nations League two years ago, picking up 2-0 and 4-0 victories over the Lions. The cumulative data from those two tussles saw the Selecao win the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) battle 4.32 to 1.62 with the Iberians racking up 21 shots from inside the penalty box..

Spain were the last UEFA nation to beat Portugal 1.538/15 in a competitive contest, a Nations League meeting in September 2022 ahead of the World Cup in Qatar. The Selecao have overhauled their style since with Roberto Martinez taking charge and performances have improved immeasurably. Even a 3-2 triumph over Slovakia saw Portugal rack up 6.27 xG.

Czech Republic's 7.206/1 own recent run commands respect in their own right too. The Lions have returned W9-D4-L2 since November 2022. However, Czechia managed only W1-D2-L2 against fellow qualified Euro 2024 nations during that same sample with none of those five sides considered on the same level as Portugal (Poland, Turkey, Albania and Hungary).

Portugal and BTTS No appeals

Picking an eye-catching play in a one-sided betting heat can be a tricky task but the 2.6413/8 on the Exchange for Portugal to win and Both Teams To Score No stands-out. It's a huge leap from the 1.538/15 available on the Iberians just to succeed in 90 minutes and has paid-out in each of the duos most recent three meetings, two of which have taken place relatively recently.

Czech Republic have failed to score in five of their past 14 competitive contests, losing five of those fixtures (W5-D4-L5). When faced with high-quality opposition over the last two years (Spain, Portugal and Switzerland), the Lions have produced an average xG output of just 1.19 xG, conjuring up just six shots from inside the box and only 2.33 on-target efforts.

Back Bruno to contribute

Bruno Fernandes has excelled in Portuguese colours since Roberto Martinez took charge. The Manchester United man scored six and created eight goals during qualification, displaying his game-changing ability with the 29-year-old now the Selecao's chief playmaker and influencer, making the 1/12.00 money on a Goal or Assist appeal on Tuesday night.

Despite United enduring a dreadful campaign, Bruno finished the Premier League with the most chances created, taking that honour for the second successive campaign. Should the 29-year-old pick up where he left off domestically, he's bound to have a major influence on proceedings this summer and looks a nice price to contribute in Leipzig.

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