Betting.Betfair.com
·21 June 2024
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·21 June 2024
Austria are favourites to beat Poland
Poland v AustriaFriday 21 June, 17:00 kick-offLive on ITV
Two desperately unlucky losers from the first round of games here - Poland losing to a late Wout Weghorst goal for Netherlands while only an own goal saw France get the better of Austria.
Those defeats mean this is a must-win and the loser is probably heading home from Euro 2024 - and the bookies have Austria as the match favourites at 19/20 while Poland are priced up as 29/10 shots.
Poland hope veteran goal machine Robert Lewandoswki will be fit, but it was one of Ralf Rangnick's standout Austrian stars who is the focus of our Bet Builder for the game - who played his part as Austria were an energetic joy to watch against the French.
Austria lit up the stat lines against France with 27 tackles, 18 fouls and five bookings - with the excellent Christoph Baumgartner involed in all of those.
He was everywhere, so there's a double dose of him in our Bet Builder, starting with Baumgartner to give away 2+ fouls at 5/6 - after a four foul display against France.
Austria will have more possession here but the way they press from the front there'll still be plenty of opportunity for him to give away more free kicks with his full-throttle approach.
The RB Leipzig man hit the target twice against the French from two attempts, and if he can do that against international giants like Les Bleus then he can do it against the Poles.
Baumgartner is 11/5 for 2+ shots on target against Poland and that's even worth taking as a single on the game if you're after one.
Poland allowed the Netherlands to have 21 shots on target in the first game so there should be plenty of opportunity again - and Baumgartner showed he's got decent accuracy about him to find the target when he gets those chances.
He's also had 2+ fouls in five of his last 10 competitive internationals, so let's make it all about him for this one.
Staked: 286pts Returned: 320.31pts P/L: +34.31pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts