Pochettino sacking was a mathematical mistake unless Chelsea do this in final 13 games | OneFootball

The Daily Telegraph’s Chelsea man Matt Law is usually using his contacts at the club for interesting pieces on what’s going on behind the scenes – but today he’s gone in a different direction, with a solid numbers based article looking at what the Blues need to do in their remaining games to guarantee Champions League football.

At this stage it looks almost certain that England will get a 5th Champions League spot because of their UEFA coefficient, making the race for European football that much easier. Law worked out that, over the last 10 years, an average of 68 points has been enough for 5th place. That puts the Blues 25 points short with 13 games to go. Can we average 2 points per game? We should be able to, but it’s a strange season.

The top teams are not at their best, while there’s an exceptional crop of mid-table sides that can beat anyone. The whole thing makes it a tricky season to predict, and fewer than 68 points might end up being enough.

Law points out that our last 13 games have seen us take 21 points – so we’d need a serious improvement from now. It all starts with a tricky looking trip to Aston Villa on Saturday.

Chelsea at risk of taking embarrassing step back this season

Todd Boehly and Mauricio Pochettino.

Law notes that Mauricio Pochettino’s team finished last season with 63 points. If our next 13 games are like the last 13, we finish with 64, and given we were dumped out of both domestic cups early this season, it would be difficult to argue this season is an improvement on last if that’s the case.

In fact, with Pochettino in place for a second season, we’re convinced he would have built on his late season run and delivered more than 70 points, so this season is already dangerously close to failure unless we really click into winning form again.