Performance Relative to Their xG, Scottish Premiership’s Top Scorer Race | OneFootball

BetVictor has analysed the xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals against) of every Scottish Premiership side so far this season, to evaluate the performance of teams by their attacking and defensive output relative to their expected rate.

xG and xGA are used to assign a value to goal-scoring chances based on past performance data. Comparing these values to actual goals scored and conceded can indicate whether a team is above or below average at taking and preventing goal-scoring opportunities, or perhaps experiencing particularly good or bad luck around the goal.

For this study non-penalty xG (including xG from set plays) was used to observe more closely the performance of teams in general play.

Key xG Insights:

theRangers are one of the most underperforming sides defensively relative to their non-penalty xGA by -32.56%

St Johnstone are overperforming their xG by 39.38% – the highest value of any team in the league

Celtic are overperforming in both attack and defense relative to their xG and xGA by 20.91% and 2.96% respectively

Motherwell are the most underperforming team in attack relative to their xG scoring 8 goals from a 12.49 non-penalty xG – the 4th highest xG value in the league but the worst percentage difference

Hearts are overperforming their xG by 25.99% and xGA by 7.69%

Kilmarnock are underperforming their xGA by -38.89%

Goals Scored Performance Relative to Non-Penalty xG:

Goals Conceded Performance Relative to Non-Penalty xGA:

Meanwile BetVictor’s current odds relating to the Scottish Premiership this season shows Celtic as  1/3 on favourites, while theRangers are priced at 9/4 with both Edinburgh clubs Hibs and Hearts on offer at 250/1 while Aberdeen are 500/1.

In terms of which player will finish as the top gaolscorer in the Scottish Premiership theRangers striker Colak is currently the favourite at 4/5 on while Kyogo is available at 2/1 then it’s Bojan Miovski and Liel Abada, both at 10/1, Kevin van Veen is 12/1 while Giorgos Giakoumakis and Lawrence Shankland are both available at 16/1.

Sakala and Tavenier (pen) are both available at 20/1 ahead of the player Kris Boyd was recently telling us was the best in Scotland who is a 25/1 shot. Morelos shares that long-shot price with Jota, Christian Ramirez, Liam Boyce while Daizen Maeda is a 50/1 shot.  That’s some price for big Giakoumakis to be fair.

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