Oxford United v Peterborough Tips: Bank on Fergie experience over two legs | OneFootball

Peterborough second favourites to go up

Peterborough are second favourites in the Exchange Promotion market at 3.211/5 and were seven points superior to Saturday night opponents Oxford with 84 points playing 77.

This will be Posh's sixth time in the EFL play-offs - after earning promotion on each of the first three occasions (1991-92, 1999-00 and 2010-11), and United have been eliminated in the semi-finals in both 2013-14 to Leyton Orient and 2022-23 to Sheffield Wednesday.

Ignore the rather tame finish in the final two games with Darren Ferguson's side as their berth was secure. Still, the Posh never fail with goals and hit three in a final day draw with Bolton - who could be their final foes looking at the market.

Kwame Poku and Ricky Jade-Jones have both been passed fit, and the visitors will be relieved as Poku was a slight injury doubt with his ankle.

On the head-to-head this season, Posh won the home match 3-0, while Oxford won the return at the Kassam 5-0, although the latter came days after their hectic schedule and EFL Trophy Final win, so it's a match not to take at face value.

Fergie will be looking to channel the 2011 side's success in the play-off final, and that was some team back then too, who finished League One top scorers and played a brand of football that was so exciting to watch.

Hosts have a big win in the bank

Oxford's position at around 4.216/5 in the Promotion Market on the Exchange is a fair reflection of their chances and they were a strong team at home throughout the season (despite manager Liam Manning leaving), and they hit 44 goals while conceding 24.

This is Oxford's third time in the EFL play-offs, after losing the League One play-off final to Wycombe in 2019-20 and going out in the League One semi-finals to Blackpool in 2020-21.

The game is a sell-out for Saturday, and while it's been a topsy-turvy season, the U's finished well with five wins from their last seven.

Manager Des Buckingham said: "There's a real positive atmosphere that bounces around the ground. That's the Oxford United I knew growing up, and that's the feeling I have now standing on the sideline as a manager."

Indeed, Buckingham was nominated for League One Manager Of The Month. Will Godwin could make a return to the squad following an absence since March.

The hosts are 11/102.11 in the 90 minutes market and 13/102.30 in the Match Odds on the Sportsbook, but neither appeal as a bet considering Posh were the better team over the season. I suspect Oxford are priced on their recent form with home advantage.

However, my gut feeling here is that Ferguson with the experience, will know how to play the two legs over the inexperienced Buckingham.

Rúben Rodrigues is the dangerman for the hosts, and if Posh stop him, they can get a result. There's always the temptation to play Rodrigues as an out-and-out striker, but he's better in a more advanced midfield role, and if Posh sit deep here, he might have some joy.

Oxford have only won one of their last eight games against Peterborough in all competitions (D2 L5), though that win came in the most recent encounter at the Kassam Stadium, winning 5-0. But with my thoughts on that result outlined previously, I think we have good reason here to take on the U's.

The Double Chance bet on Posh is not quite big enough, and with Ferguson's experience, I am backing the draw at 2/13.00. The Peterborough Telegraph, excellent as always, revealed some startling numbers this week with Fergie: winning 274 games under at the club, with 120 draws and 208 defeats. They have also scored 1004 goals in Ferguson's four spells in charge - that takes some beating.

Over 2.5 Goals odds-on, so go against the market

Goals are on the cards according to the Sportsbook, and that's no surprise whenever Posh play, but surely the Over 2.5 Goals at around 1/21.50 is too short?

The 5-0 has influenced that I am sure, but Oxford have a fair xA of 1.16 and have the tools to keep it low. Posh's xG numbers are very similar both home and away, as are the xA numbers at 1.2 and 1.1, and it could be worth going against the market as the 13/82.63 on the Under 2.5 Goals is fairly attractive.

Posh (636) and Oxford (424) are two of the three sides in League One this season to have recorded the most 10+ open play passing sequences, while only Peterborough (83) have had more direct attacks than Oxford (78), so we'll have to be brave here.

Anytime Goalscorer options

Three of the leading four in the betting to score first are Oxford players with Josh Murphy 5/16.00, James Henry 5/16.00 and Billy Bodin 6/17.00. Jonson Clarke-Harris is 5/16.00 for Posh for First Goalscorer honours and 6/42.50 Anytime Scorer.

JCH has been used sparingly this season with Peterborough going for quicker and younger legs and a more pressing game, but the 29-year-old is a dual Golden Boot winner at this level and still has 13 this season despite sitting on the bench for most of it.

He'll likely be leaving in the summer, but he's been a model professional this term and his experience could prove to be invaluable over the two legs.

Ephron Mason-Clark has 14 league goals and the power forward was sold to Coventry in January for a hefty fee but loaned back to the club.

Hector Kyprianou (eight goals) and Ronnie Edwards are two of the outstanding young prospects at Posh and while not prominent in the scoring betting, the latter is a smooth as silk defender and I would be surprised if he isn't playing in the Premier League soon.

It's a bit Posh heavy here, and in a tight game JCH potentially appeals but I'd rather sit this one out until the return leg.