Opta's Premier League Predictions: Supercomputer says 33/1 Newcastle 'of interest' above Spurs and Man Utd | OneFootball

It's time for the domestic football marathon all over again.

The 2024/25 Premier League season gets under way on Friday 16 August as Manchester United host Fulham in the curtain raiser.

With Betfair's outright offer, you will be credited with a free bet for every goal scored by the team you back to win the Premier League in their opening three league matches.

So, let's have a look at where the antepost value is and which teams can help you take advantage of that offer.

Title contenders

MANCHESTER CITY

To win the title: 13/10

First three fixtures: Chelsea (A), Ipswich (H), West Ham (A)

This will come as no surprise to anyone, but Manchester City are quite good.

They won an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title last season and are given an 83% chance of making it five in a row by the Opta Supercomputer. With their outright sportsbook price giving them an implied probability of just 42%, they are a massive value pick.

It's rare that Pep Guardiola's side are ever available at an odds-against price. That likely reflects a potential transition in the squad with Kevin De Bruyne reaching the latter stages of his career, the future of goalkeeper Ederson in question and forward Julian Alvarez moving to Atletico Madrid.

Should Ederson depart, Stefan Ortega is someone Manchester City can rely on. The German had the second-highest save percentage (74.07) of anyone to play more than five times last season. He also ranked ninth for goals prevented, with a figure of 2.03 - one place and 0.37 ahead of Ederson.

Any team with the back-to-back Premier League Golden Boot winner and last season's Premier League Player of the Season should be relied upon to pick up results and, with Betfair's outright offer in mind, score plenty of goals.

Erling Haaland has now scored 63 league goals for Manchester City, while he also registered a league-high non-penalty xG of 0.81 per 90 minutes last season. Phil Foden, meanwhile, was the league's biggest xG overperformer in 2023/24 with 19 goals from 10.34 xG, confirming that he is a world-class finisher.

Having also scored more goals than any other team in the 2023/24 Premier League (96), other teams should rightly be intimidated by them.

In four of the last five seasons, City have been the top scorers in the division after three matches, scoring at least nine goals by that point each year. Having been given what Opta calculate as the sixth-easiest start by the fixture computer, they can be expected to repeat that feat.

It's not the most exciting pick given what has come before, but the data points towards a continuation of Manchester City's Premier League dominance.

ARSENAL

To win the title: 7/4

First three fixtures: Wolves (H), Aston Villa (A), Brighton (H)

While the data does point towards a fifth consecutive Premier League title for Manchester City, it would be remiss not to put Arsenal in the conversation.

The Gunners have pushed City all the way in each of the last two seasons, missing out on top spot by a cumulative total of just seven points over the course of 2022/23 and 2023/24. That came down from five points to two last season, so the Gunners are closing the gap to their main opposition.

Notably, they also topped the Big Six mini-league last season. Arsenal won six and drew four of their league matches against the other Big Six teams, including a four-point haul from City.

For those that do fancy Arsenal to go one better than the last two seasons, their opening three matches are rated just 0.1 percentage point more difficult than Manchester City's.

LIVERPOOL

To win the title: 13/2

First three fixtures: Ipswich (A), Brentford (H), Manchester United (A)

Liverpool have to be considered as the last of the genuine title contenders, given that every other team aside from these three is given a 0.1% chance or lower of winning the title this season by the Opta Supercomputer.

The Reds themselves are 40.9% likely to finish third and given just a 5.2% chance of winning their second Premier League title. That is represented in them being third favourites on the sportsbook.

But of the three teams mentioned here, Arne Slot's side have the easiest start as per the Opta ratings.

Liverpool have won 28, drawn six and lost two of their last 36 matches against teams promoted from the Championship, so opening against Ipswich looks handy. They also took six points off Brentford and scored seven goals against them last season, while they have scored 26 goals in their last eight matches against Manchester United in all competitions.

If Liverpool are to have a successful season under Slot, they need to make the most of their attacking threat. Last term, they had a league-high 579 shots on goal and open-play xG of 67.03. Despite that, they were outscored by both Arsenal and Manchester City.

If they are to overcome that profligacy, one man who will need to step up is Darwin Nunez. The Uruguayan had 4.8 shots per 90 minutes during 2023/24 - more than any other Premier League player - but scored just 11 league goals.

Also key to their success will be the continuation of Alisson's brilliant performances, which show no sign of abating.

The Liverpool goalkeeper had a save percentage of 72.73 last season, which was the third-best in the Premier League. That rate came from 83 saves in 28 appearances, equating to 2.96 per match, which is more than Emiliano Martinez, David Raya, Ederson or Ortega.

Top-four challenger

To finish in the top four: 9/4

First three fixtures: Southampton (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham (H)

While the Opta Supercomputer suggests the likelihood is that Newcastle don't finish in the top four, it does give them a 26% chance of qualifying for the Champions League for the second time in three seasons.

The prediction model has fourth or fifth as their likeliest finish and there is a 42.5% likelihood of them finishing in the top five of the table. That would be a significant improvement on seventh place from last season, which saw them miss out on European football altogether.

Given that their price to break into the top four is longer than both Manchester United and Tottenham - both of whom the Supercomputer has finishing below Newcastle - they look the best-value pick to achieve the feat, particularly without continental matches clogging up their fixture list, something which proved a challenge last year as Eddie Howe had to cope with a long injury list.

Their outright price (33/1) is also at least 50% longer than both United and Spurs, despite the above. While it is unlikely that Eddie Howe's side will lift the Premier League title this season - the Supercomputer gives them a 0.1% chance - they could be of interest with Betfair's outright offer in mind.

Newcastle have the third-easiest start to the season in terms of opposition rating, only Fulham and Nottingham Forest have kinder opening fixtures.

Key to any success they have will be the form - and fitness - of forwards Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. The pair generated the third and fourth-highest xG per 90 in the division last season respectively, of players to play at least 10 games. But while Isak was a mainstay of the team, Wilson's injury issues resulted in him playing just 984 minutes during the campaign - fewer than half that of Isak.

Mid-table mover

FULHAM

Top-half finish: 11/4

First three fixtures: Manchester United (A), Leicester (H), Ipswich (A)

The Opta Supercomputer predicts that Fulham have a 36.4% likelihood of finishing in the top half of the Premier League this season. Given that their sportsbook price of 11/4 gives an implied probability of 26.7%, there could be some value here.

It is important to caveat the next point by saying that Fulham are very unlikely to trouble the top of the Premier League. That is fairly reflected in their price of 500/1 to win the title, while the Supercomputer gives a 1.6% probability of a top-four finish.

But, having said all that, Fulham have been handed the second-easiest start in the Premier League with the average rating of their opponents in the first three fixtures coming to 84.1.

Relegation Candidate

IPSWICH

To be relegated: 17/20

First three fixtures: Liverpool (H), Manchester City (A), Fulham (H)

You've got to feel for Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have been handed the most difficult start, with their opponents' average Opta rating coming to 93.5 in their first three.

While their season won't be defined by their results against the big boys, it is hard to understate the importance of a good start to the season. There is the danger that two heavy defeats could halt any momentum before it starts as we saw with promoted sides last season.

Both Sheffield United and Burnley were beaten by Manchester City, Tottenham and Newcastle in their opening six matches in 2023/24 - in which they earned a cumulative two points - and failed to recover.

Kieran McKenna's side start at home to Liverpool who, as mentioned above, have made mincemeat of promoted sides over recent years. A trip to Manchester City follows before the light relief of Fulham.

With an xG of 75.1 in 2023/24 - the lowest of the promoted sides - don't even think about using them to take advantage of Betfair's outright offer. The Opta Supercomputer suggests a 65.2% likelihood of them being relegated.

*All percentage probabilities correct at the time of submission.