Opta Predicts Europa League Final: Back penalties in 27/1 Spurs v Man Utd Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Do not scratch your eyes, we are actually about to see Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in a European final. In spite of both clubs' woeful respective domestic seasons, they both have an opportunity to finish with an unlikely trophy that comes with lucrative Champions League qualification.

So let's get stuck in and see where the value is hiding, with help from the Opta statistics.

Difficult to pick a winner

For one day at least, we're going to have to forget that these sides are occupying the final two spots above the Premier League's relegation zone after stinking the place out for the majority of this season.

While it is hard to get much of a steer on either team by looking at their largely terrible combined recent results, the fact that they have faced one another on three occasions already this season is worth your time. The winner in those matches? Spurs x3. Spurs are, in fact, unbeaten in their last six matches against Manchester United in all competitions.

This is probably a good time to remind you that Ange Postecoglou's side are available at 15/8 to win inside 90 minutes.

Having already won this competition on two occasions, a third title would make Spurs the equal-most successful English club in the tournament's history alongside Liverpool - the only side to have won it more times is Sevilla (seven). It would also be Tottenham's first major trophy since the EFL Cup in 2007/08.

But before everyone piles into Spurs at what looks like a great-value price, there are a few things we need to consider.

Spurs' initial 3-0 victory away to Manchester United in September came after Bruno Fernandes had been sent off on 42 minutes. The 4-3 win in the EFL Cup, meanwhile, could be considered fortuitous on the balance of play, while United also had their chances in the 1-0 Spurs victory in February, registering 1.52 xG to Spurs' 2.23.

Dejan Kulusevski's enforced absence after undergoing knee surgery is a blow for Spurs, given that he had supplied 21 goal contributions (10 goals, 11 assists) in all competitions.

That news was compounded with injuries to James Maddison - who scored the winner in the previous meeting between these sides in February - and Lucas Bergvall, with the three players having registered a combined total of 43 goal contributions this season.

There is also the small matter of Spurs' form going into the final, with three of their four victories in their last 11 matches in all competitions coming in the Europa League.

Before everyone lumps on United, the other side of the form book isn't any better. Following back-to-back defeats in the Premier League, Manchester United's only victories in their last 12 matches in all competitions have come in their two legs against Athletic Bilbao in the Europa League semi-final.

But United are, in fact, the only unbeaten team in any of Europe's major competitions this season, having won nine and drawn five of their 14 games in the Europa League. They would become just the fourth side to win the Europa League without losing a single match should they end up victorious in Bilbao.

Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, would become just the third Manchester United manager to win a trophy in his first season in charge alongside Jose Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).

For that to happen, United will have to repeat the same level of performance they have only managed to previously find in this competition. Given the unpredictability of the level of either team's performance, it is hard to definitively pick a winner - and the Opta supercomputer has not given either side a win probability of above 40%.

While Spurs represent the best value in the win/draw/win market, injury issues arguably make United the likelier winners at 29/20. Instead, it might make more sense to go for the draw in 90 minutes at 11/5 or either team to win on penalties at 9/2 given that there is so little between the sides.

United can bring the goals

One thing we can be reasonably confident about in this match is goals. There have been 11 shared between the two sides across three matches this season.

Manchester United have also scored a competition-high 35 goals in this season's Europa League, with Borussia Monchengladbach in 1972-73 (36), Porto in 2010-11 (37) and Chelsea in 2018-19 (36) the only teams to ever score more.

It is interesting to note that United are also the second-worst xG underperformers in the Premier League this season, having netted just 42 league goals with an xG of 50.2. While that suggests that their finishing has been below-par on domestic duty this season, it at least shows that they have been making chances.

The difference for them in Europe is that they have been finishing them, having netted 18 times in their last five Europa League matches (including extra-time). At 9/10 for over 2.5 goals, there is a chance that United fulfil that on their own.

Over 3.5 goals at 9/4 looks an even better bet, when considering that Spurs have scored 27 goals across their 14 Europa League matches, averaging out to 1.93 per game. Both teams to score, meanwhile, is available at 4/6 having landed in 11 out of United's 14 Europa League games and eight of Spurs'.

Big-game player Fernandes to step up again

He is an obvious pick in the individual goal markets, but Bruno Fernandes is someone who never seems to be far away from a big moment in a match. No player has scored more goals than him in the Europa League this season (seven), while only Rayan Cherki (12) has contributed more goal involvements than his 11.

In the Premier League, Fernandes ranks first among Manchester United's players for goals (eight), xG (9.6) and shots (90). In the Europa League, he has scored three goals in his last three appearances, including a crucial brace away to Athletic Bilbao in the semi-final first leg.

The 13/10 about Fernandes to score or assist is worth siding with. Both him (seven goals, four assists) and Dominic Solanke (five goals, four assists) are just one assist away from recording five or more goals and five or more assists in the same Europa League campaign - a feat only two players have previously achieved.

Solanke has also scored in each of his last four appearances against Manchester United in all competitions (five goals) - since Alex Ferguson left the club in 2013, only Mohamed Salah has scored in five straight games against United.

Given Spurs' availability issues, one would expect Solanke to be their primary source of goals. He is available at 12/5 to score anytime, though it is worth noting that six of his last eight goals have been the opener and he is 13/2 to score first.

Elsewhere, no player among either squad has committed more fouls in the Europa League than Noussair Mazrouai (16). The 7/5 available for him to commit two or more fouls on Wednesday looks like a steal, while he is worth pitting against Mathys Tel in a Build Ups bet on fouls, given the striker's short price.