Opta Prediction Puts Liverpool Top in Premier League 2025-26 Forecast | OneFootball

Liverpool Tipped for Another Title in Opta Predictions

Liverpool’s defence of the Premier League crown begins on Friday night as Bournemouth visit Anfield for the opening fixture of the 2025-26 season. Arne Slot’s side enter the campaign as champions after a triumphant debut year for the Dutchman, but with a refreshed squad following a busy summer of arrivals and departures.

Supporters had a glimpse of the new-look Reds during Sunday’s Community Shield at Wembley against Crystal Palace. Twice Liverpool went ahead, but the Eagles fought back on both occasions before winning on penalties. It was a reminder, as Slot acknowledged, of the challenges ahead.

Photo: IMAGO

Opta’s Data Favour Liverpool in Tight Race

Data analysts at Opta have simulated the upcoming season 10,000 times to produce an average points tally and predicted table. Their findings suggest Liverpool are marginal favourites.

“Liverpool have been given an average of 73.2 points compared to 71.9 for Arsenal while Manchester City are on 69.9. Chelsea are fourth with 63.7. The final points tallies are low compared to what all those clubs are expected to get but Opta predict a competitive campaign which could see a lower total required to win the league,” stated Liverpool World.

By comparison, the Reds claimed 84 points last season, finishing comfortably ahead of Arsenal and City. The projections suggest a far tighter race this time, with Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Crystal Palace all tipped for strong campaigns.

Predicted Order for 2025-26 Season

According to the simulations, the top four would be Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea, with Villa and Newcastle just behind. Manchester United are predicted to finish 12th, Tottenham 14th and newly promoted Sunderland rooted to the bottom.

While the forecast offers encouragement, it also underlines the level of competition Slot’s men will face. The margins between the top three are slim and any slip in form could quickly alter the picture.

Photo: IMAGO

Slot’s Early Assessment

Reflecting on the Palace match, Slot told the club’s website: “I think it’s a good first impression the new players have, [those] that haven’t played in this league last season. This [Palace] was the number 12 [12th-placed team] of last season – a very good team, [who] especially in the end they did so well that they maybe are better than the number 12 [position] they ended up in.

“But if these are the number 12 that can make it such a hard time for you, you know what you are going to have to expect if you play here and that is what they know now.

“And the ones that played here for a longer time also know that if you won the league, if you wear a Liverpool shirt, everybody wants to win desperately against you and we have to be more ready for that than we were today.”

It is a timely reminder that, while statistical models have faith in Liverpool’s title defence, the reality of the Premier League is unrelenting pressure and fierce competition.

Our View – Anfield Index Analysis

For Liverpool supporters, Opta’s projection is a confidence boost ahead of the new campaign. Being handed a 73.2-point average, marginally above Arsenal and Manchester City, is a public nod to the quality and depth of Arne Slot’s squad.

However, the lower predicted totals suggest this could be a season where consistency matters more than hitting the 90-point mark. A few well-earned draws against tough opposition might be enough if rivals also drop points. Slot’s remarks after the Palace match echo that reality; there will be no easy games, and every opponent will lift their performance against the champions.

The top-four forecast is also notable. Chelsea’s predicted resurgence, alongside strong pushes from Villa and Newcastle, could add extra complexity to the race. For Liverpool, staying mentally sharp in those mid-season fixtures against teams outside the immediate title picture will be critical.

If the Reds can blend the energy of their new signings with the experience of Van Dijk, Alisson and others, they have every chance of living up to the data. But it will require the focus and resilience Slot insists upon from day one.