Opta predict Premier League table: Where every club is most likely to finish this season | OneFootball

Highlights

Already after just six games into the Premier League season, some familiar patterns are beginning to emerge. Manchester City, once again, are setting the pace at the top of the table, Chelsea, on the other hand, are struggling well below expectation, and the opposite can be said of Brighton and Hove Albion.

Some fresh and interesting things appear to be happening too with Tottenham Hotspur making a strong start to life without Harry Kane, while West Ham United have also performed well considering they lost talisman Declan Rice in the summer. All in all, it's been a typically engaging first few weeks of the season and enough data is now out there for Opta to have drawn up a simulation of how things may play out by the time the 20223/24 campaign is complete. With that information, GIVEMESPORT has ranked where every club is most likely to finish.

20th - Sheffield United - 34.5%

Whenever a Championship team gets promoted, they're up against it in their first season back in the top flight. So it can be really important to make their home ground a real fortress. In Bramall Lane, Sheffield United have one of the finest venues in English football – the very best in terms of fan experience according to some – but after last weekend's display, it's fair to say they've failed to make that advantage count so far.

Indeed, it's bad enough to lose 8-0 but to do so at home just rubs salt in the wounds. That humiliating loss to Newcastle leaves the Blades on just one point after six games. According to Opta, the highest they could finish is 10th (with a 0.1% chance of that happening). All hope isn't lost yet as they have a 24% chance of staying up, but relegation seems more likely at 76%.

20th - Luton Town - 33.7%

Luton are making their first-ever Premier League appearance so it's understandable for the expectation to be that they will struggle. Unfortunately, their start to the season hasn't done much to allay those fears with just one point in their first five games – coming at home most recently against Wolves who were down to ten men for the entire second half.

The Hatters and Sheffield United are actually both viewed as having a 25.1% chance of finishing 19th, with Luton also given a notable 33.7% prediction of coming dead last. There's a 0.2 chance they could finish as high as 11th but the overwhelming expectation (75.3%) is that they'll end up relegated as one of the bottom three.

18th - Burnley - 18.5%

Showing just how hard it is for the newly promoted, Burnley are next up on the list as the team most likely to end up in the final relegation spot. Vincent Kompany's men also have just one point from the first five games, but at least have played a game fewer than most of the teams around them.

There is some reason to be optimistic, however, as Opta believe they are more likely to finish 17th (16.4%) than 20th (13.6%). Still, much like the other two sides below them in these rankings, they are still ultimately expected to go down rather than stay up at this stage of the season.

18th - Bournemouth - 17.6%

While three other teams appear to be more likely relegated this season, that doesn't change the fact that Bournemouth's expected table finish is also inside the bottom three. The Cherries have a 41% chance of ending up in the relegation zone which still leaves plenty of space to remain optimistic.

It's been a pretty slow start to life under new boss Andoni Iraola, though, with three draws, three defeats and zero wins in their opening six games. With that being the case, an 18th-placed finish is currently the most likely outcome for Bournemouth.

17th - Everton - 16.4%

Rejoice Everton fans! For all the misery, doom and gloom around Goodison Park of late, your team may avoid the drop once again. The Toffees have of course never been relegated from the Premier League since its creation in 1992 and it seems as though there is every chance that run continues.

No doubt helped by that hugely important 3-1 away win at Brentford last weekend, Sean Dyche and his side now look most likely to come 17th (16.4%). The threat of relegation still looms large with 26.1% but at least there is an outside shot (0.1%) that Everton finish as high as seventh.

15th - Wolves - 15.9%

With former boss Julen Lopetegui leaving just three days before the start of the new season, the signs have looked ominous for Wolves of late. New boss Gary O'Neil hasn't had a great start to life in charge either with one win, one draw and four defeats so far in the Premier League – while they were also dumped out of the Carabao Cup this week by Ipswich Town.

Even so, Opta believes there is only a 17% chance Wolves end up in one of the bottom three places, which bodes well. Judging from the data, fans can probably expect their side to finish somewhere between 12th and 17th but it's too early to get complacent just yet.

14th - Nottingham Forest - 16.2%

Spending a lot of money in the transfer window can massively destabilise teams – we'll get to Chelsea shortly – but sometimes it can help. And if the goal for Nottingham Forest was to avoid relegation last term, it certainly worked – which explains why they were busy in the market again this summer, signing 15 players (including seven on deadline day).

Those incomings currently have Steve Cooper and co 12th in the table, on seven points after six matches. There is a 10.6% expectation that they'll remain here. However, they are most likely (16.2%) to end up dropping a few spots to 14th. This would still represent a pretty decent second season back in the top flight having finished 16th last term.

13th - Chelsea - 16%

Talking of splashing the cash in the summer market, Todd Boehly's strategy (whatever it might be) doesn't appear to be paying dividends just yet. Indeed, Chelsea have made a woeful start to life under Mauricio Pochettino with one win, two draws, and three defeats so far.

At this rate, they could finish even lower than last season's dismal 12th. And, according to the data, that seems likely. In fact, there is a 68.2% current chance they finish in the same position or lower. They are also more likely to be relegated (3.1%) than finish in the top four (0.0%).

11th - Fulham - 16.7%

For a number of years, Fulham have been brandished with the unfortunate tag of being a yo-yo team destined to bounce between the Championship and the Premier League. But they could help shed that nickname by avoiding the drop in two consecutive seasons.

Impressing many by coming 10th last term, they look in with a good shot of essentially repeating the trick this time around. Indeed, while they are most likely to finish one spot lower in 11th or even drop to 12th (16.3%), there is still a decent chance (13.8%) they finish exactly in the middle of the division once again.

11th - Crystal Palace - 17.2%

It's now been over a decade since Crystal Palace played outside the Premier League having been promoted from the Championship in the 2012/13 season. In that time, the Eagles have never finished higher than 10th or lower than 15th.

With that being the case, it's little wonder they look nailed on to finish somewhere in that region again. Indeed, there is only a 17.5% chance they finish 9th or better. But, at the same time, only a 6.8% chance they finish 16th or worse. The Palace ship appears to be as steady as ever under Roy Hodgson.

10th - Brentford - 17.2%

It seems as though Brentford are set for a season of mid-table obscurity whichever way you look at it. Indeed, the Bees are understood to be just as likely to finish 10th as they are 11th with a 17.2% prediction on both positions.

Considering they are only in their third-ever Premier League campaign and will be without suspended star striker Ivan Toney until January, this isn't too bad at all. Thomas Frank's men have only won once so far this term, but are evidently expected to find their feet over the coming months.

9th - West Ham - 18.2%

The Hammers had made a very impressive start to the season before back-to-back defeats to Man City and Liverpool knocked them off their stride a little. Even so, they still sit seventh right now with 10 points after six matches.

David Moyes' men enjoyed the heights of winning a European trophy last term but their final league position of 14th was fairly underwhelming. They'll endeavour to enjoy continental success again this season, this time in the Europa League, while domestically there is reason to be hopeful too. After all, while their most likely outcome right now is ninth, West Ham still have a 36.2% shot of finishing somewhere inside the top seven.

8th - Manchester United - 16.8%

It's indicative of the poor start they've made to the season that Man Utd are expected to drop way out of the Champions League places, having finished third last season. But with three wins and three losses this term, the Red Devils have looked wobbly at best of late.

Erik ten Hag won't be happy with it, but his side are currently more likely to finish eighth in the league than any other position – while there is an outside 0.1 chance they drop all the way to 16th. There is also a damning 0.0% chance prediction that they will win the division...

7th - Aston Villa - 17.7%

It's easy to forget that Aston Villa were struggling towards the bottom of the table, looking completely rudderless under Steven Gerrard before Unai Emery arrived. The Spaniard's impact was immediate as the Villans rose all the way to finish seventh last season.

This term, they sit sixth with 12 points so far and it looks as though they will be up around the European spots once again come the end of May. Indeed, Villa are most likely to come seventh (17.7%) but could break into the top four potentially, having been given a reasonable current 8.8% chance of doing so.

5th - Spurs - 18.5%

Under new boss Ange Postecoglou, Tottenham have made a fine start to the season and are still unbeaten – having just picked up a rare point away from home against Arsenal in the North London derby. With four wins and two draws from six, the Australian has helped immediately remove the dark clouds that were hanging over the club last season.

Even so, it appears as though they are most likely destined to finish just outside the top four in fifth at 18.5%. However, thanks to the new Champions League format which comes in next term, this could still be enough to achieve the club's goal of securing a spot in that prestigious competition.

5th - Brighton - 18.9%

Brighton have been the Premier League's biggest over-achievers for some time now and despite regularly losing their best talent to rival teams with more spending power, they continue to come back stronger than ever. This summer, for instance, their midfield was taken apart with Moises Caicedo heading to Chelsea and Alexis Mac Allister joining Liverpool, and yet the Seagulls have moved on seamlessly.

Roberto De Zerbi has his side playing excellent football once more, sitting third in the league with 15 points as a consequence. With that in mind, it feels fair for Opta to suggest they have a 10.8% predicted chance of finishing third and 17.7% at fourth – even if a fifth-placed finish is currently their most likely outcome.

4th - Newcastle - 17.8%

Despite a mixed start to the season, Newcastle United fans will be delighted to know that they are in with a good shot of securing back-to-back top-four finishes. Losses to Man City, Liverpool and Brighton threatened to throw Eddie Howe's project of course, but a win against Brentford and that hammering of Sheffield United appears to have improved the mood on Tyneside.

Thanks to the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, the Magpies are now one of football's elite and this is backed up by the Opta Premier League predictions. While they appear most likely to finish fourth, Newcastle have an outside chance of winning the title at 0.1% but could more realistically come second (2.6%) or third (10.2%).

3rd - Arsenal - 37.6%

Arsenal exceeded all expectations last season as they pushed Man City hard in the title race and ultimately finished second. And it seems they'll have to perform above expectation once more this term if they are to manage that or even go one step further and win the division.

Indeed, the Gunners appear most likely to actually drop one spot and finish third this time around but that doesn't mean they should be ruled out of things completely. There is still a 1.7% prediction that they win the league (which says more about Man City's dominance than anything else), while they also have a 20.7% shot of holding onto second place for a second season in a row.

2nd - Liverpool - 59.7%

Leap-frogging Mikel Arteta and co, however, it appears Liverpool could be nearly back to their best after a difficult campaign last term in which they slumped to a fifth-placed finish. With five wins and a draw from six, the early signs certainly are positive for Liverpool.

However, the Reds are still unfortunately someway off from being favourites to win the whole competition, having been given just an 8.5% chance by Opta. Jurgen Klopp may well have to settle for second place but after finishing outside the top four last term, he'll be delighted to know there's only a 4.7% chance prediction that his side do that again this time around.

1st - Manchester City - 89.5%

Suprise, Suprise... Man City are the overwhelming favourites to win the Premier League for the fourth time in a row. This would be a real show of their recent dominance, especially when you consider that no English club has ever won four successive league titles.

They've made a perfect start to the current season with six wins from six, conceding just three goals, and so there is only a 10.1% chance prediction that they won't lift the title in May. Opta also claim there is a 0.0% chance they finish outside the top four as things stand – truth be told, it's hard to argue with any of that.