Norwich City will take huge confidence from Derby County feat as Leeds United await: View | OneFootball

The Championship is heading for a typically unpredictable end to the season. With this year’s edition of the play-offs looking increasingly hard to call, David Wagner’s Norwich City are well-placed to launch an unlikely promotion bid and may be facing the perfect opponents in their semi-final.

For it’s been a case of so near yet so far for Leeds United, who fell short of automatic promotion - narrowly edged out by Leicester City and Ipswich Town in an exciting three-way-battle for the top two spots - despite accumulating a points total that would have seen the Whites’ return to the Premier League in three of the last five seasons in the division.

Although Leeds have enjoyed, on the whole, a much more successful campaign than Norwich by almost every metric, the Championship play-offs have a habit of throwing up unpredictable results. Over two legs, past performances can be thrown out of the window. The Canaries may have finished seventeen points behind Leeds, but they have more than enough quality to produce a turn-up for the books.

After all, Daniel Farke’s side have looked exhausted in recent weeks. The Whites’ downturn in form of late could be symptomatic of a team that has run out of steam following their failure to achieve automatic promotion. Ultimately, the play-offs have always been the second-choice route to the Premier League promised land for Leeds. Norwich, though, have been building towards this target for many months now.

The Canaries should be primed for the semi-final and must be inspired by their opponents' most recent experience in the competition. Back in 2019, Leeds were on the receiving end of one of the classic play-off turnarounds. Derby County’s 4-2 win at Elland Road sets the standard for unlikely outcomes after essentially being Leeds' whipping boys in three of their four meetings that season.

The Elland Road atmosphere can work to Norwich's advantage

Derby’s 4-2 victory at Elland Road may not have been possible against another team at contrasting ground in front of a different set of fans.

While Leeds' supporters are undoubtedly some of English football's most vociferous, Elland Road can be especially tense in high-pressure games.

Although the Whites’ fans have inspired their team to memorable comebacks over the years, the sense of occasion is always amplified at Elland Road, and many consistent performers have succumbed to the pressure as a result.

The season-defining nature of the play-off matches places additional strain on the players, it can be easier to disassociate the magnitude of the match in front of smaller crowds and less intense support.

When momentum is building for the opposition, the sense of anxiety from the crowd at Elland Road can be palpable; this is tension that is passed onto the pitch, and, similarly to the Derby game, Leeds players can struggle to regain composure and control of the match.

If Norwich can stick in the tie and hold their own despite the wealth of talent Leeds possess, the Canaries can play on the Elland Road atmosphere, generate a sense of frustration, and hope that their opposition buckles under the weight of expectation. Just as we saw when Derby turned Leeds over in 2019.

Derby County found the formula for play-off upset

Norwich will have to follow in Derby's footsteps if they are to defy a Leeds team that will be considerable favourites to progress to the play-off final.

Five years ago, trailing 1-0 after the first leg and then 1-0 again in the second (2-0 on aggregate), Frank Lampard’s Derby team stunned supporters inside Elland Road. A Jack Marriott brace accompanied goals from Mason Mount and Harry Wilson as the Rams produced a textbook away performance to shock the Yorkshire side.

Through being disruptive and showing attacking intent, Derby exposed cracks in the Leeds defence, with a Kiko Casilla and Liam Cooper howler gifting Marriott his first before half-time. Norwich must try to be the aggressor over the two legs to cause similar uncertainty, particularly in the return leg at Elland Road, where the atmosphere will be cagey given Leeds' woeful play-off record.

Marriott embodied Derby’s fighting spirit on the night of their comeback. The first-half substitute made an instant impression off the bench. The attacker chased down a lost cause and benefited from a defensive mix-up from Cooper and Casilla to haul the Rams back into the tie. It spiralled from there for Leeds as Mount and Wilson struck, and although Stuart Dallas had Leeds back level for a period, Marriott would win the game with a cool finish as Gaetano Berardi saw red in the heat with a rash challenge.

With the pressure of expectation weighing heavily on Farke’s favourites, the Canaries must push the tie and hope Leeds crumble. If they are too passive and try to absorb their opponent’s own pressure and hang on, Norwich will be susceptible to the quality their opponents possess. Of course, it's about hanging in, but it's about seizing the initiative, as Derby did when Elland Road got tense.

They can even take a positive from a first-leg defeat, knowing that Elland Road isn't even going to be settled if they are one or two goals to the good, just as in 2019. One moment under the Yorkshire floodlights could change everything.

Leeds' rotten play-off record should inspire more Norwich confidence

Leeds have a dismal zero percent success rate in the play-offs. 37 years on from the Whites’ first defeat against Charlton in 1987, the club have tried and failed to achieve promotion through the format on five occasions.

In comparison, many Norwich fans will have positive memories of their 2015 play-off triumph. The Canaries sealed promotion to the Premier League by defeating Middlesbrough 2-0 under the Wembley arch.

There has never been a larger points difference between two teams competing in the play-offs than the seventeen that separate these sides, but with the level of pressure, recent poor form, and awful competition record all glaring negatives weighing on the favourites, Norwich could be in the perfect position to inflict more play-off pain this season on Leeds.

If Wagner’s side are to upset the odds, they will have to take inspiration from Derby and upset the Elland Road atmosphere, which has been deflated by back-to-back defeats after 21 games unbeaten to start the campaign on home soil. Attack Leeds head-on, and it will, well and truly, be game-on in this play-off contest.