Netherlands v Austria: Expect goals to flow in Group D thriller | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Back Cody Gakpo to have an impact early in the game

James Eastham looks at the odds and reveals the smart bets on a potentially spectacular group decider taking place on Tuesday evening...

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Netherlands vs AustriaTuesday 25 June, 17:00Live on BBC2

Back attacks to get on top

We're expecting a thrilling encounter and winner-takes-all attitude from the two sides when Netherlands and Austria go head-to-head in Berlin on Tuesday evening.

A draw would almost certainly see both sides go through to the knockout stages but it's unlikely that either side - and Austria in particular - will be willing to settle for a point.

After displaying a positive attitude in their 1-0 opening-game defeat to France, Austria then played on the front foot again when they deservedly ran out 3-1 winners over Poland in their last match.

One point behind Netherlands and sitting third in Group D as they head into the game, Austria are likely to go all-out for the win that would see them leapfrog their opponents to finish either first or second in the group.

The potentially gung-ho attitude that Austria will employ should set the tone for the match, which is why we're expecting an open encounter. And, while Netherlands were understandably cautious at times in their 0-0 draw vs group favourites France last time out, there's plenty of evidence that Ronald Koeman's players can fully contribute to an open and entertaining encounter.

Goals the smart bet

Netherlands showed good spirit and no shortage of attacking skill to come from 1-0 down to win their opening game 2-1 vs Poland. They then fashioned two excellent scoring chances and also had a Xavi Simons goal disallowed in their goalless draw against France.

Looking at how these two sides have performed in their two games each so far, it's fair to assume they will both create scoring opportunties. The sheer pace of the Austrian attacks and the number of players that push forward when they advance will make them a threat, while the individual quality in the Dutch ranks - Simons, Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, and Wout Weghorst off the bench - makes it dificult to see Austria, who have conceded in each of their two games to date, keeping a clean sheet.

All of which makes our headline pick 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market. The odds of 1.78 are well worth taking given how we expect the game to pan out. The tournament stats to date also point towards the outcome we favour: at the time of writing, both teams have scored in 14 of the 24 games (58 per cent) played at the finals in Germany.

Gakpo the main danger man

In the player markets, we recommend you make Cody Gakpo the focus of your attentions. The Liverpool attacker has been dangerous across Netherlands' opening two matches, and we expect him to be one of his side's go-to players again here.

He's 3.1 in the Anytime Goalscorer market, 6.5 in the Anytime Assist market, and 2.5 in the To Score Or Assist market. But it's another market that really catches our attention on this player.

It was noticeable that Gakpo was especially dangerous in the opening rather than later stages of the two games he's played so far. In Netherlands' opening game against Austria, for example, he was their most dangerous attacking outlet in the first-half, scoring with a deflected shot on 29 minutes. Then, in their second game against France, he again started strongly, testing France goalkeeper Mike Maignan with an excellent strike on goal on 16 minutes.

Gakpo is a short 1.4 in the Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target market but a much bigger 2.25 in the Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target in 1st Half market. Given the almost immediate impact that Gakpo has had in games to date, we would advise backing him at bigger odds in the Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target in 1st Half market, and then sit back and wait for him to start the game strongly.

Recommended bets

Back 'Yes' in Both teams to Score? market @ 1.78