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·27 January 2025
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·27 January 2025
Third against fifteenth with a points chasm of 18 would seem a fairly straightforward task, and Wrexham initially could have been backed at a decent-looking evens for Tuesday, and that could turn out to be a gift from the Welsh gods, but they went 5/6 later in the evening.
However, this has to be about Stevenage and their stranglehold of a defence that collected yet another clean sheet on Saturday with a terrific 0-1 success at Barnsley - a performance at the back with shades of the 1980s Serie A teams that used to give away nothing, and Stevenage do not give much away.
Darrell Clarke described Barnsley's efforts as woeful, but a lot of credit has to go to Stevo who kept their Yorkshire opponents to an xG of just 0.09.and got the points with a late winner.
With five draws away from home and a goals record of F4 A8 on the road, Stevenage are an appealing bet here on the Double Chance and +1 bets as the Under 2.5 will be pretty short around the 1/2 mark. It's now three 0-0s for Stevenage since December 21st, and they kept out Wigan, Blackpool and Lincoln in those marches and keeping them onside to do so again is the way I am playing Tuesday.
Leyton Orient are showing no signs of stopping and Os fans must be in dreamland with their current run of form - which has taken them to a lofty seventh - almost unheard of.
Unbeaten in ten, Orient breezed past Reading at the weekend 2-0, with manager Richhie Wellens describing the 90 minutes as one of the easiest wins on his watch, as his team completely controlled possession and chances.
Dilan Markanday, recently signed on loan, purred in midfield alongside recent Swansea addition Azeem Abdulai and both look tremendous additions to a squad that potenially could be pushing for promotion.
I saw Markanday in person for Chesterfield at the MK Dons before Christmas and in terms of quality, was the best player on the ball, but Chesterfield couldn't pass 10 yards to each other in that game and he wasn't given anything. Markanday will excel in a team with more possession, and in truth, higher quality, and with his goals at Chesterfield (six), the Anytime Scorer bet looks worth a punt, and playing that bet at 4s gives a boost to the treble.
The attacker scored a lovely goal against Reading on Saturday with a shimmy followed by a finish, and Orient should create chances against an Exeter team that have conceded more than they have scored at home (20 versus 19).
Darren Ferguson absolutely tore his players to shreds at the weekend after a lamentable 5-1 loss at Lincoln, and one has to wonder how much time and desire Ferguson now has at London Road. The plan to go with youth has backfired badly this term.
The Scot called his side the softest set of players he's ever worked with post defeat at the weekend, while adding they don't run, tackle or head the ball. It's a worrying slump for the Blues, and I am often one to champion their cause in this division, but they haven't won in the league since December 14th and another loss could be curtains.
In terms of the bet here, Ferguson's words could work either way, but the trend has been set and at home they have the worst defensive record in the division with 26 conceded and they look far too open.
Wigan have collected five wins on the road - better than the four at home and ran out 3-0 winners in the reverse fixture back in October and you have to fancy Wigan to at least get on the scoresheet considering Posh's awful home record.
Port Vale's title chances have long gone after a wobbly spell and while they have picked up a couple of victories of late (against Doncaster and Newport County) they still look a team with a knack of drawing too many games.
It's nine stalemates in 27 this term for Darren Moore's Valiants, and two in their last four. Being reduced to 10-men at the weekend didn't help against Chesterfield, but they were held 0-0 at home to Cheltenham on New Year's Day with just 1.19xG as an output and just one big chance created. If you are on for promotion, you need to be beating Cheltenham.
Both of these played out a 1-1 earlier in the season, and you can see where I am going with Tuesday's bet as I anticipate another low-scorer and am very tempted with the draw outright.
Colchester are certainly hard to beat these days and have conceded just 10 at home all season - while their last four overall have all hit the Under 2.5 Goals mark.
With xG metrics for the season of 1.2 and 1.3, and Colchester a massive 13 draws in 27 all season, backing the draw make sense with a cancelling out job on the cards.
A statement win of epic proportions came from Bradford on Saturday with a thumping 3-0 against the League Two elite in Walsall.
The Saddlers were 12 points clear prior to the weekend and hadn't lost a game since October 1st, so a real feather in the cap must go to Bradford, who now have to back it up from the best in the division to the worst.
Morecambe deserve to be 6/1 here and you feel this could be sort of game that Antoni Sarcevic could enjoy plenty of freedom for the hosts. The 32-year-old showed his quality with one of the goals on Saturday and he fits into an eleven that looks strong and powerful, and Sarcevic was a wonderful playmaker/attacker for Plymouth in the lower divisions a few years ago.
The hosts are nine wins from 13 with just one defeat at Valley Parade, plus a tight defence shipping just 10. While odds-on, they look banker material.
Morecambe, as the bottom team in the division, have one of the worst xG metrics here at 1.15 for the season overall and fell behind Carlisle at the weekend to prop up the table with just 20 points.
Tipping up Swindon with few goals and Unders in a game was a recipe for disaster earlier this season, but a 0-0 draw at Crewe earlier this month was a sign of improvement under Ian Holloway and they have carried on the good work under Olly.
Holloway has managed a depleted back line with injuries well, with skipper Ollie Clarke doing a fine job in filling in at centre back, so much so that the Robins secured back-to-back League Two wins recently for the first time all season.
Those victories were against Barrow and Newport, so not major scalps, but the new found resilience can hopefully see us with a profitable tip.
Tranmere are horrendous away from Prenton Park and were recently booed off the pitch at Wimbledon with another lacklustre effort. Tranmere try and huff and puff with endeavour, but there's such a dearth of quality in the final third that teams can set up knowing Nigel Adkins plays damage limitation football.
Adkins is probably on borrowed time for all his affinity with the club, and with just eight goals scored all season away from home and an away xG metric of 1.20, it is likely to be another game low on goals or quality.