Man United v Newcastle: Opta says back Schar and Magpies to win in near 50/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Football... Only Better Podcast - Listen to the latest episode now!

As the calendar year draws to a close, we have got another Premier League biggie to get involved with at Old Trafford.

It's hard to argue that 2024 has been anything other than an annus horribilis for Manchester United, while Newcastle are coming into 2025 with some momentum.

Ahead of their meeting on Monday evening, let's have a look at where the data suggests the value lies.

Newcastle win is the sensible bet

It's impossible to know exactly what was on Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim's Christmas list, but it's unlikely to have included a meeting with one of the Premier League's form teams following a humbling Boxing Day defeat.

That is because Manchester United's season once again looks to be unravelling as they drift from one dismal performance and result to the next. Their 2-0 reverse at Molineux last time out was a fourth Premier League defeat in five matches and third successive loss in domestic competition since beating Manchester City earlier this month.

United come into their home game against Newcastle on Monday having lost five of their last seven matches in all competitions and, alarmingly, they have not been unlucky to do so.

They were comfortably beaten 2-0 at Arsenal at the start of December, hammered 3-0 at home to Bournemouth in their last match before Christmas and Wolves deservedly took three points off them on Boxing Day in just their second league victory of the season at Molineux. The result means Manchester United are the first team in the Premier League era to lose five matches in all competitions in consecutive Decembers, having done the same thing in December 2023.

That defeat was also Amorim's 10th match in charge of Manchester United in all competitions, in which he has won four, drawn one and lost five - by comparison, United lost only two of Erik ten Hag's final 10 matches in charge.

The Wolves debacle also brought up four Premier League defeats for Amorim in his opening seven matches, making him by some distance the quickest Manchester United manager to ever reach that milestone. For context, Ten Hag was next-quickest having managed 13 league games before suffering four defeats, while Jose Mourinho waited the longest at 35 matches.

Following their run of form, Manchester United are 14th in the Premier League table (at the time of writing), seven points off the top six and eight above the relegation zone - a defeat on Monday could see them drop closer to the bottom three in terms of points than a European place. Their Boxing Day position this year, meanwhile, is their lowest in the top flight since the 1989-90 season, in which United finished 13th - the last time they finished a season outside the top flight's top eight.

By way of example for just how damaging this run of form has been for United - and where they should now realistically pitch themselves - the Opta supercomputer is currently predicting a bottom-half finish (52.8% likelihood) for them. What all of this means is that Manchester United appear to be more vulnerable now than they have been for some time.

Fifth-placed Newcastle's likeliest finishing position, meanwhile, is fifth place, following their run of three straight league victories. Eddie Howe's side trail the guaranteed Champions League positions by five points, while they are a point ahead of seventh-placed Manchester City.

Despite coming into this match with an unenviable record at Old Trafford - Newcastle have won just one of their last 39 league games away to Manchester United (D10 L28) - the current state of play, and price, means we have to get behind the visitors here. Newcastle are 8/5 to make it four league wins in a row and five in all competitions.

Goal shy United to struggle going forward

While the above information has established the reasoning behind backing Newcastle for the straight win, the following should explain why it is also hard to argue against an away win to nil at 9/2.

Howe's side have won each of their last three league games to nil, while the only goal they have conceded in their last four in all competitions was a stoppage-time Yoane Wissa effort in their 3-1 EFL Cup quarter-final victory over Brentford.

Newcastle have conceded the equal fourth-fewest goals in the Premier League (21) so far this season. Within their run of three straight league victories, they have also allowed a total of just four shots on target - that does come with the caveat of Jhon Duran's first-half red card in the 3-0 Boxing Day victory over Aston Villa, but it is still worth mentioning. They have also registered the league's third-lowest shots-to-goals-conceded ratio (9.09%).

United, meanwhile, have failed to score in three of their last five Premier League matches and will be without key player and captain Bruno Fernandes after his red card at Wolves. The 30-year-old has been directly involved in four of Manchester United's nine league goals under Amorim (two goals and two assists), while he is their top scorer alongside Marcus Rashford with four goals.

With Fernandes missing and Rashford out of favour, having been left out of the squad for four consecutive matches, the lack of creativity within the United ranks should worry fans. Three-goal Alejandro Garnacho is a potential replacement for Fernandes, but has not started a game in any competition since the 3-2 home defeat to Nottingham Forest earlier this month.

As a result, under 0.5 Manchester United goals is enticing at 3/1, while BTTS: No looks a good option for bet builders at 13/8.

Manchester United have also conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches in domestic matches, while they have kept just two clean sheets in their last 12 in all competitions, so Newcastle are also of interest on the -1 handicap at 4/1.

Set-pieces could prove profitable again

The Red Devils conceded directly from a corner for the second time in two games in Manchester United's 2-0 defeat to Wolves, with Andre Onana at fault this time. That was the 12th set-piece goal Manchester United have conceded in the league this season - only Wolves have let in more.

Excluding penalties, they have conceded from a set piece in nine of their 18 league games this season. As a result, it makes sense to look at centre-back Fabian Schar at 9/1 as a goalscorer. The Swiss defender has scored two league goals this season, averages one shot per match and is likely to make the trip forward for corners and attacking free kicks.

Tino Livramento missed Newcastle's 3-0 victory over Aston Villa due to injury, with Kieran Trippier deputising for his first start since October. Should he be missing again, Trippier could be worth looking at in the goal or assist market alongside Anthony Gordon, owing to the fact they both take corners and with United's issues in recent memory.

Trippier is available at 5/2, while Gordon is 6/4 in the same market. It is probably worth waiting for the team sheets if backing the former, while in-form Gordon scored home and away against Manchester United last season and has had a goal involvement in each of his last four games.

Elsewhere, you need look no further than the hottest striker in the Premier League currently. Alexander Isak has scored seven league goals and registered two assists in his last five appearances. The Swede is behind only Mohamed Salah (16), Erling Haaland (13) and Cole Palmer (12) on 11 league goals in the Premier League Golden Boot standings.

He has been directly involved with 16 goals this season, leaving him equal-third alongside Bukayo Saka for goal contributions. He is available at 6/4 to find the net again, while an Isak goal or assist is available at 6/5.