Man City v Everton: Backing low goals total is best Boxing Day betting angle | OneFootball

Man City v Everton: Backing low goals total is best Boxing Day betting angle | OneFootball

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·24 December 2024

Man City v Everton: Backing low goals total is best Boxing Day betting angle

Article image:Man City v Everton: Backing low goals total is best Boxing Day betting angle
Article image:Man City v Everton: Backing low goals total is best Boxing Day betting angle

Man City have won just once in their last 13 matches


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Can Everton pile more misery on defending champions Man City? Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing a low-scoring encounter at The Etihad.

Man City v EvertonThursday December 26, 12:30Live on Amazon Prime

Man City slump at Villa Park

Manchester City's crisis intensified as the defending champions slipped to another damaging defeat at Aston Villa. Phil Foden's stoppage-time reply was nothing more than a consolation strike as the Citizens were comfortably beaten 2-0 at Villa Park on Saturday, a result that dropped Pep Guardiola's group down to sixth, 12 points off the top.

It's now nine defeats and a solitary success in Man City's last 12 games across all competitions as their campaign continues to spiral downwards. Guardiola's made six changes from the Manchester derby defeat, but it made little difference during another laboured performance that lacked attacking inspiration, and confidence.

John Stones also picked up a reoccurrence of a previous injury and had to be withdrawn at half-time and now joins Ruben Dias on the sidelines for the next few weeks. With Nathan Ake also already out of action, Guardiola confirmed youngster Jahmai Simpson-Pusey will feature for Man City in their Boxing Day clash against Everton at The Etihad.

Dyche delighted by Everton's defence

Everton boss Sean Dyche piled on the praise for his players after overseeing the Toffees' goalless draw with Chelsea last weekend. The Merseysiders had incoming executive chairman Marc Watts from the Friedkin Group in attendance following the completion of their takeover and the hosts produced a combative and solid defensive performance.

Dyche said: "I've never not been proud of these players. We have come through a storm. I respect them. We want to be productive in possession, but it's not always easy against these teams. You have to be willing to put a shift in and I think that was on show. We could have nicked it. The chances were minimal, but we take a point and move forward."

Everton will need a reshuffle ahead of their trip to Manchester with Ashley Young suspended and Dwight McNeil still "touch and go" but unlikely to feature from the off at The Etihad. Tim Iroegbunam and James Tarkowski also remain unavailable despite making positive progress from injuries. Seamus Coleman should return to the starting XI here.

Toffees can frustrate Man City flops

Manchester City have dominated this fixture in recent years, boasting a W12-D2-L0 record in Premier League fixtures dating back to 2017. However, the Citizens were held here when entertaining the Toffees in December 2022, as well as in back-to-back home encounters against the Merseysiders in 2016 and 2017, all of which came under Pep Guardiola's tenure.

It's impossible to trust Man City at miniscule 1.35 quotes, irrespective of the opposition right now. The Citizens are blighted by injuries, strapped of confidence and coming up ominously short in both boxes; over the last eight Premier League matches, City are ranked 15th on Expected Points (xP), giving up an enormous 34 Big Chances in that same sample.

No side across Europe's five major leagues has bettered Everton's 9.80 haul of seven clean sheets since the start of October and the Toffees have now silenced five of their past six Premier League opponents, including title hopefuls Arsenal and Chelsea. The visitors have lost just twice in their last 12 (W3-D7-L2) and have all the tools to frustrate their hosts here.

Unders the obvious angle

As well as haemorrhaging goals and opportunities over recent months, Man City's final-third output has suffered. The Citizens have scored twice or more in only three of their past 13, whilst only three sides have scored fewer goals over the past two months of Premier League action - Pep Guardiola's gang notching just 10 goals in their last nine league dates.

Now Man City face an Everton side that's conceded the fewest goals in the division across the past 12 matches - eight in total, four of which arrived in one game when Man Utd generated only 1.10 Expected Goals (xG) vs the Toffees. With that in-mind, the goal line just looks too high ahead of the early kick-off at The Etihad and I'll therefore oppose goals.

Under 3.0 Goals is available to support at 1.83 and provides profit should zero, one or two goals be converted. Exactly three goals returns a push with only four or more seeing our stake lost - Everton have seen Under 2.5 Goals bank in nine of their previous 12, six of which saw a maximum of one goal with five of those fixtures ending completely goalless.

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