La Liga Tips: Real Madrid and Mbappe to launch title defence at Mallorca | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Last season's champions Real Madrid are favourites to win again in 2024-25

Matchday one is officially underway in La Liga, and Jamie Kemp is back to preview the season openers for Spain's 'big three' of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid...

Valencia v Barcelona - Sat, 20:30

One of the standout fixtures on MD1 of the new season in La Liga, Valencia versus Barcelona under the lights at Mestalla will most certainly shake us out of our pre-season intensity. This will be an aggressive affair, supported by a hostile atmosphere, and I'm not expecting anyone to take the points with any sort of ease.

Barcelona are of course the odds-on favourites 4/6, but the first competitive game of the Hansi Flick era has thrown up a feisty challenger. Quite frankly, there'd have been much kinder 'debuts' than this one. Valencia are no attacking juggernaut, nor are they blessed with elite talent, but they're a strong collective who know how to make life hard for the opposition.

Los Che had the second-best defensive record at home in La Liga last season, with only Real Madrid (9) conceding fewer goals than them (14) on their own patch. Indeed, the east coast side do a fantastic job of varying their defensive approach, with the ability to press and force errors complimented by a solid 4-4-2 block when the game calls for it.

Unsurprisingly, parity tends to be a theme in these types of games. Since last November, Valencia have played out the joint-most draws in home matches in La Liga (6), level with now-relegated Cadiz. In the same period, their goals scored (13) and goals conceded (11) are separated by just two. And across last season overall, they netted just 20 in 19 home games.

With Barcelona arriving on the back of a rather humiliating defeat in the Joan Gamper Trophy game (0-3 v Monaco), along with the fact they're in a race to register players and get their business in order in time to compete, I don't expect a vintage version on MD1. Flick's side could be a long way off their best XI, and Mestalla isn't a place you want to go in such condition.

Mallorca v Real Madrid - Sun, 20:30

The Kylian Mbappe era got off to a winning start on Wednesday, with victory in the UEFA Super Cup over Atalanta and a goal for the Frenchman to boot. It wasn't spellbinding by any means, but the final form of Real Madrid's new attack is of course only just beginning. There are many gears to shift through yet.

Even so, Ancelotti's side still racked up 2.5 xG in their 2-0 win over Atalanta. For a team easing their way into the campaign, and with numerous players having only recently returned to club duty, the flashes of their attacking firepower were still there. Real Madrid already possessed the magic of scoring goals without necessarily playing 'well', and Mbappe's presence has enhanced that even further.

Indeed, Real Madrid come into this game on a 32-game unbeaten run in La Liga. September 2023 was the last time they were beaten in the competition, while they've won their opening game of the campaign in each of the last eight attempts. All but one of those wins has been by at least two goals, with 2015-16 under Rafa Benitez the last time they didn't win their opener (0-0 v Sporting Gijon).

Mallorca should be a pretty uncomfortable opponent for most in 2024-25, but translating being uncomfortable to face into points hasn't been easy for them in recent times. Only four sides picked up fewer points than them in home games in La Liga last season (40), and three of those suffered relegation.

Under new management in the form of Jagoba Arrasate, Osasuna will try to be a bit more expansive than they were last term - albeit probably from MD2 onwards. Arrasate faced Real Madrid on 10 occasions in his previous role at Osasuna, but didn't manage to win any of those (D3 L7). His former side netted just five times across those 10 matches and conceded 22 in return, while they lost home and away against them last season and conceded four goals in both.

It probably won't be the last time I say it this season, but Real Madrid to win and Mbappe to score anytime looks good to me.

Villarreal v Atletico Madrid - Mon, 20:30

As of the end of last season, hope wasn't all that abundant for Atletico Madrid. Finishing in fourth spot and never really belonging to any idea of a title race, they were made to sweat by Athletic Bilbao just to ensure they clinched fourth spot. Without significant work in the summer market, there was little ambition of improving their standing.

Fortunately for Atletico fans, that's just what has occurred. It's impossible to say exactly how much better they are now, or what their ceiling of performance is ahead of seeing them play, but this is most certainly a heavily improved squad. Robin Le Normand has been one of the league's most consistent defenders for a number of years, Julian Alvarez is a polished star at the very top level, and Alexander Sorloth has scored more goals in La Liga than anyone else in 2024 (17).

It's unlikely the 'gala XI' will be available from MD1, but the optimism of those developments should fuel them from the first kick. It wasn't too long ago that Atletico Madrid won at La Ceramica either (2-1 in April), which is the only home game Villarreal have lost in La Liga in 2024.

The hosts are building something promising under Marcelino, but this looks a good time for Simeone's side to catch them. The Yellow Submarine are also still missing some key additions to the squad - not because they won't arrive, but just as their pursuits of said players are still ongoing.

Atletico Madrid are fortunate in the timing of the game in that sense, as in just a few weeks we might be talking about Villarreal in a much different way with respect to their strength. Indeed, the player they have the biggest necessity to replace - striker Alexander Sorloth - will be lining up on the opposite team on Monday night.

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