Jones Knows Notebook: Back a 25/1 Boxing Day goals ACCA in the top-flight | OneFootball

English Premier League

Festive cheer on Boxing Day

Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - makes a case for EVERY Premier League game on Boxing Day to go over the 2.5 goals line as he tips up a 25/1 Christmas cracker...

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Box clever with goals theory on 26 December

Boxing Day is a day where shoppers grab value - and it's no different for punters as there are endless opportunities to back winners on a day where sports fans are truly spoilt across the board.

There is a full festive football fixture list to delve into and one of my punting strategies as we devour the leftovers will be to back goals, goals, goals in the Premier League.

When running some recent data, the Boxing Day factor helps the goals flow at the top level. In the last 18 Premier League games played on December 26, there have been an average of four goals scored per game with every single one of those games producing over 1.5 goals.

Perhaps the festive mood inside the stadium in terms of atmosphere helps the game flow to a higher tempo which in turn spikes the goal output. Who really knows...but we do know the Boxing Day usually delivers.

When you add that to an already goal heavy period in the Premier League it really does open up the doors for some serious betting opportunities. We're in the midst of a goal rush in the top-flight this season.

Over the past 59 games, the average goals per game has spiked significantly to 3.36 per game and over 2.5 goals bettors have successfully cashed in 68 per cent of games. Even the 1.5 goals line is being battered by goals, in that 52 of those 59 games have seen two or more goals scored.

Even the four all-Premier League Carabao Cup ties last midweek went over 2.5 goals to add further fuel to the fire.

How do we profit from the Boxing Day goal rush?

A simple yet effective strategy is to back all eight Premier League games to see more than 2.5 goals scored, basically backing three or more goals to be scored in every game. Combining those bets on the Betfair Sportsbook brings out a 25/1 shot to attack which wouldn't be a price I'd want to lay as a bookmaker which is usually a good sign to know we're on the right tracks with a bet.

This acca would've landed across the seven Boxing Day fixtures during the 22/23 Premier League where every game went over 2.5 goals and only lost one by leg during the 21/22 season and last season where Liverpool's 2-0 win at Burnley just fell short of the over 2.5 line.

It's a touch frustrating that the hardest leg of the eight Premier League games in terms of over 2.5 goals is the early kick-off on Boxing Day when Manchester City host Everton. Sean Dyche's men are a tough nut to crack but are woefully toothless in attack, failing to score in six of their last seven Premier League matches and we all know about City's problems at the moment.

But if we can negotiate our way through that tricky fixture all the other seven matches on Boxing Day look ripe for over 2.5 goals landing.

Recommended bets

Back all EIGHT PL Boxing Day games to go over 2.5 goals @ 25/1