Italy route to the Euro 2024 final: Potential knock-out stage opponents | OneFootball

With only one group game left at Euro 2024, we take a look at who Italy might face on their route to the European Championships final.

Italy head into Euro 2024 as tournament holders after beating England on penalties at Wembley in the 2020 edition.

Italy’s potential route to Euro 2024 final

Italy’s Group B fixtures

2-1 vs Albania – Italy made things hard for themselves, conceding against Albania after just 23 seconds (the quickest goal in European Championships history) but the Azzurri were able to get themselves back into the game quickly, leading less than 20 minutes later. They were troubled at various points but their victory never really felt at risk after taking the lead. With two tricky games to close out the group, they’ll need to improve though.

0-1 Spain (20 June, 8pm BST) – Arguably the most eye-catching clash in the entire group stage saw the Euro 2020 winners face the team they beat in the semi-finals. In the end, Spain got another helping of revenge, having also beaten Italy in two Nations League semi-finals since then. Italy managed just one shot on target, while facing nine.

vs Croatia (24 June, 8pm BST) – This is another mouth-watering clash between sides that have made waves in international football in recent years. Italy and Croatia are close neighbours with just the Adriatic Sea and a 23km stretch of Slovenia separating them. However, they haven’t met since 2015. Croatia have become something of a bogey team for Italy over the years. The Azzurri won their first meeting way back in 1942 but haven’t repeated the feat since, drawing five times (including the last three) and losing the other three clashes. A point would be enough to secure second place in Group B for Italy here but there is a nightmare scenario in which they lose and drop down to fourth (and out of the competition). Spain will be heavy favourites to beat Albania, but they have nothing to play for as top spot is already secured. Albania on the other hand will be highly motivated and already took a point off Croatia.

If Italy finish runner-up in Group B

Runner-up is the most realistic outcome for Italy.

Last 16: Italy would face the Group A runner-up in the last 16, which is most likely to be Switzerland (though could also be Scotland).

Quarter-final: The most probable opponent at this stage is Germany, who are expected to secure top spot in Group to set up a game against one of the third-place teams.

Semi-final: Were Italy to beat Germany, they would likely play France at this stage.

Final: This could be a rematch vs Spain, or Portugal.

If Italy finish third-place in Group B

Italy will finish third if they lose to Croatia and Spain beat Albania.

Last 16: They would then play the winner of either Group E (potentially Belgium) or F (likely Portugal).

Quarter-finals: If it’s Portugal they face, the next opponents would most likely be the Netherlands. If Belgium, most likely France in the subsequent round.

Semi-finals: After beating the Netherlands in this hypothetical scenario, Italy would play Spain or Germany in the semi-finals. The other side of the draw would set up an encounter with England.

Finals: Essentially a reverse of the previous rounds. The ‘Portugal route’ would set up a final against France or England. The ‘Belgium route’ would pit them against Spain, Germany or Portugal.

Italy’s reasons for optimism

Why wouldn’t the holders be optimistic? Italy entered the last Euros with very low expectations but it very quickly became clear they were challengers as they thrashed Turkey and Switzerland 3-0 and then beat Wales 1-0 to round out the group stage without conceding a goal. In the likes of Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolo Barella and Federico Chiesa, the Azzurri have genuinely world-class talent, while the core of their squad is made up of the Inter side that have blown Serie A away this season.

With those credentials, you can never write them off.

Italy’s potential roadblocks

The most obvious issue in this Italian side right now is where the goals are going to come from. It’s not so much that they’re short of quality but more that they need to find a No.9 and stick with him. Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca and Ciro Immobile have all been tried over the last 12 months to varying degrees of success, with the latter perhaps the standout choice given he was the starter at Euro 2020. But a lack of cohesion up-front could certainly be an issue for the Italians, who scored 16 times in qualifying compared to 22 goals from England and Belgium, 25 from Spain, 29 from France and 36 from Portugal.

The period between European Championships has been volatile for the Italian national team and supporters will just be hoping Spaletti can keep the players together and away from any in-fighting.

Fan and media perspectives

There will always be some expectation surrounding Italy at a major tournament, especially given they enter this one as holders. But compared to previous decades, excitement is pretty low. Getting out of this difficult group would be an achievement in itself and from there, fans will just be hoping the draw is kind enough to see them reach the latter stages.

How Italy qualified for Euro 2024

Since winning the last European Championships, Italy have failed to qualify for a second successive World Cup, lost twice to Spain in Uefa Nations League semi-finals and finished six points behind England in qualifying for this tournament. Simply put, optimism was not high among supporters. Not least because they were drawn into the ‘group of death’ (Group B) alongside Spain, Croatia and Albania.