I must admit I was quite excited by the prospect of signing Hugo Ekitike but then there is this… | OneFootball

This has been a rollercoaster week for Newcastle United fans.

It kicked off with most people excited by the prospect of a Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak frontline terrorising Premier League defences.

By midweek, excitement had turned to trepidation, with people worrying if Isak could be on his way to Liverpool.

By week’s end it was a case of as you were, Alexander Isak still a Newcastle player, with seemingly Hugo Ekitike set to join Liverpool.

The final bit of news in this week’s striker transfer saga was that Newcastle were potentially turning their interest to Brentford’s Yoane Wissa. This development bought a mixed reaction from fans online, with many Newcastle United fans expressing disappointment that we weren’t able to secure Ekitike.

Failure to sign Ekitike marks the third time Newcastle have been denied his signature and, with the Frenchman being linked to Newcastle United and Liverpool this week, there has been a lot of talk about his qualities.

Most press outlets have touted Hugo Ekitike as the natural successor to Alexander Isak, highlighting several similarities in their style of play.

The two do seem quite similar physically, both are tall, slender and surprisingly strong. If you look at their playing styles, there are also some similarities there too, both players are comfortable with the ball at their feet, very creative and like to dribble. There is one key difference however, and this is I think being overlooked by both disappointed Newcastle fans and, bullish Liverpool fans. Ekitike is just not a natural goal scorer, in fact, he might be one of the worst number 9s around.

One of the things that makes Alexander Isak so deadly as a striker is his finishing ability. Yes, the Swede may miss the occasional chance, but when the pressure is on and you need someone to stick the ball in the net, you can rely on Isak to score.

You can see his finishing ability when you look at how many goals he has scored when compared with his xG (ED: Expected number of goals based on number and quality of chances). I’ve talked before about how xG is often misunderstood and misused to explain football performance, however, it is a very good indicator of the quality of chances that strikers are presented with. Since he joined Newcastle United Isak has never underperformed his xG. What this means in plain terms is that you can rely on Isak to score difficult chances and not miss a sitter when it presents itself. In an ideal world you would like your strikers to be always outperforming their xG as it shows their ability to not only score easy chances but, also to score in big games where chances are few.

There are plenty of strikers in the Premier League who have been maligned for their finishing ability over the past year or so. The biggest culprit for this in the Premier League last season was Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who underperformed his xG by 3.75. Nicolas Jackson is often derided as a poor finisher and his goals to xG return is similarly poor, with his ten goals being 2.34 below his xG. There are multiple other players you would expect to see in this category such as Joshua Zirkzee (-1.82), Rasmus Hojlund (-1.24), Dominic Solanke (-1.97), Kai Havertz (-0.56) and Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez (-0.71). Even the most ardent of Liverpool fan would tell you how frustrating Nunez’ finishing can be and many of these fans are very excited about the arrival of Hugo Ekitike being an upgrade on Nunez’ finishing.

However, this is where we get on to the key difference between Ekitike and Isak, why I think Ekitike is not a natural striker. For all their similarities, Hugo Ekitike is a country mile apart from Alex Isak when it comes to finishing. Despite scoring a respectable 15 goals in the Bundesliga last season, Ekitike underperformed his xG by a staggering 6.67! To give that some context, he squandered more chances than Calvert Lewin, Jackson and Havertz combined. Another statistic that reflects poorly on Ekitike is that, despite playing the full season at Frankfurt in 24/25, he still finished as their second top goal scorer behind Omar Marmoush who joined Manchester City in January.

While it’s true that at 23, the Frenchman has got time to develop, one of the areas I would say that is hardest to cultivate is natural finishing ability. I’m sure that playing in a top team Ekitike will score his fair share of goals, however, I would place caution on anyone expecting him to become a leading marksman in the Premier League within the next couple of seasons.

As much as I admire his play, I am a little relieved we didn’t spend the huge sum of money being quoted to secure his services. I will admit I was quite excited the prospect of signing Hugo Ekitike, I think he is an incredible talent, but I see his best role as one playing alongside another more natural finisher. He will of course have this at Liverpool for at least a year with Salah extending his stay on Merseyside, but long-term, I think the Scousers will need to move for another striker in the near future.

So where does that leave Newcastle United in our own striker search?

There were multiple reports that Newcastle were turning their attention to Yoane Wissa.

The Brentford striker was very productive last season and, since Ivan Toney’s departure, has scored double figures in the last two seasons. He turns 29 this year, so he certainly isn’t a player you would expect to become Isak’s successor in the long run, however, he is a proven Premier League goal scorer who is ready to contribute immediately. In fact, had he been Brentford’s penalty taken last season, he would have scored more goals than Isak. Also, for anyone wondering, he also outperformed his xG last season by 0.41. One potential complication Newcastle could face in trying to secure the services of Wissa is Manchester United’s pursuit of Bryan Mbeumo.

If the pursuit of Wissa becomes too difficult or too expensive, where might Newcastle turn their attentions next?

I have one suggestion that hasn’t really been talked about and that is the Lyon player Georges Mikautadze. The Georgian attacker was joint top goal scorer in Euro 2024. While he generally plays through the middle for his country, he often lines up on the left for his club but, has made multiple appearances in a central striker’s role. His creativity and finishing ability are not dissimilar to Isak’s, however, the key difference is that physically he’s a different profile of striker, standing only 5’9”. I’m not sure if his diminutive size would be a barrier to Newcastle pursuing him but, he’d certainly be a far more affordable option than many players we’ve been linked with and seems a good fit to play in the side at the same time as our Swedish talisman.

Whatever happens moving forward, I hope Newcastle United start to accelerate their transfer business. as we now stand only four weeks away from the start of the Premier League season. It’s certainly not panic stations yet, as there’s plenty of time to get deals done, and any incoming players at this point probably wouldn’t displace our current players immediately. Let’s hope for a busy last few weeks of the transfer window and a few that are less stressful than the one we’ve just had.