How will January transfer window affect the Portuguese title race? | OneFootball

As the Primeira Liga approaches the halfway mark, just three points separate the traditional three contenders to become champions of Portugal, with Braga only a couple of points further back.

The scene is perfectly set for one of the most exciting title races in recent memory. Making the right or wrong moves in the January transfer window could be the difference between being crowned champions in May or ending 2023/24 as one of the also-rans.

PortuGOAL looks at the potential incoming and outgoing transfers of the title contenders and how it may affect the outcome of the competition.

While Benfica remain favourites to lift the crown, a bet online for local rivals Sporting, the always competitive Porto or even outsiders Braga could reap rich rewards in a difficult-to-predict season.

Sporting, 1st, 34 points

Sporting hit the jackpot in the summer by bringing in Swedish striker Viktor Gyökeres and Danish midfielder Morten Hjulmand in two the biggest transfers in the club’s history. Both players have proved tremendous successes. However, the Lisbon club will not be splashing out anything like those fees in the next month.

Indeed, coach Rúben Amorim will be more concerned about possible outgoing transfers. Earlier this week Gyökeres allayed fears he would be on his way out of Lisbon just a few months after arriving, saying he intends to stay until the end of the season at least, even if a European giant is willing to meet his €100 million buyout clause. Nevertheless, Sporting fans will only rest easy if the Swede is still in Lisbon come 1 February.

The Lions may find it harder to resist offers for some their other gems. Centre-back Gonçalo Inácio in particular has been the subject of much speculation over recent weeks, with Arsenal and Newcastle United strongly linked with the Portugal defender.

Whether or not it is linked, Sporting’s first purchase of the January window this week was precisely a central defender. Brazilian centre-back Rafael Silva was signed from Leixões for €750,000. He will also provide cover for Ousmane Diomande, Sporting’s outstanding Ivorian centre-back who will miss several matches in January and February while he is representing Ivory Coast at the Africa Cup of Nations. With fellow centre-backs Sebastián Coates and Jeremiah St. Juste struggling with injury, Amorim may well want to bring in further cover for the heart of the defence, although Eduardo Quaresma’s outstanding display in Sporting’s recent 2-0 victory over FC Porto gives Amorim another valid central defender option.

Portugal will also lose Mozambican international right-back Geny Catamo to the AFCON tournament and Japanese midfielder Morita will play for his country in the AFC Asia Cup. It would be no surprise to see Sporting bring in reinforcements in those positions too, especially in central midfield with the squad very thin in that area.

Transfer made: Rafael Silva (Leixões)

Potential incomings: Centre-back, right-back, central midfielder

Speculated outgoings: Gonçalo Inácio, Ousmane Diomande, Viktor Gyökeres, Geny Catamo

Benfica, 2nd, 33 points

Benfica were heavy favourites to win the league at the start of the season, but inconsistent performances have dogged Roger Schmidt’s team throughout the campaign as they strive to become the first side to retain their championship title in six years.

Unlike their city rivals Sporting, the summer business did not go well, apart from the capture of World Cup winner Ángel Di María, who has lived up to the high expectations upon his return to the Estádio da Luz, and goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, the Ukrainian proving an upgrade on Odysseas Vlachodimos.

But the gaping holes left by the departures of left-back Alex Grimaldo and striker Gonçalo Ramos were not adequately addressed. The replacements bought at substantial cost, David Jurásek and Arthur Cabral, have both endured a torrid first half of 2023/24, failing to impress with the little playing time afforded to them by Schmidt. Experienced Spanish international Juan Bernat was also drafted in as left-back cover, but has also barely featured.

Benfica president Rui Costa has promised reinforcements in the January window, and these two positions are obvious starting points to improve the squad. The search for a new striker will be intensified after Schmidt revealed Caspar Tengstedt picked up an injury in training and will be out of action “for the next games in January”.

It is also likely a new right-back will land at the Luz given the fitness problems afflicting Alexander Bah, although the excellent displays of makeshift replacement Fredrik Aursnes makes such a move less urgent. Boavista’s Pedro Malheiro has been rumoured to be close to switching to the Portuguese capital.

Benfica have made millions in the transfer market over recent years, profiting handsomely from their Seixal academy products, and centre-back António Silva and midfielder João Neves are set to be the next players earning the Lisbon giants huge financial windfalls. Neves in particular has been strongly linked to a move to Manchester United, although with Benfica still fighting on four fronts it would be a big surprise if the club let him depart this winter.

Potential incomings: left-back, right-back (Pedro Malheiro), striker

Speculated outgoings: António Silva, João Neves

FC Porto, 3rd, 31 points

With the exception of another commendable Champions League campaign, Porto have had a distinctly unimpressive season, losing to their fiercest rivals Benfica (twice) and Sporting, getting knocked out the Taça da Liga by Estoril, and playing unconvincing football in the Primeira Liga. The Dragons have won only 3 of their 14 league games by a margin of more than one goal, and have scored fewer goals than any of the other top five teams in the standings.

Last year’s top scorer Mehdi Taremi has been firing blanks all season. The Iranian seemed unsettled by the summer speculation linking him with a move to AC Milan. The transfer was apparently on until the final moments of the transfer window before it fell through. The Italians are rumoured to have rekindled their interest in the Porto No9. If so, it would be little surprise to see Porto sell given that Taremi’s contract is up at the end of the season, and he is not contributing in the same way as previous seasons. The financial and sporting arguments point towards a transfer.

Other players who may be on their way out of the Estádio do Dragão are David Carmo and Nico González. Centre-back Carmo has been an authentic flop since his €20 million move from Braga, while the Spanish midfielder has struggled for game time since his summer switch from Barcelona.

As for delving into the transfer market, Porto’s well-documented financial struggles make it unlikely any major moves will be made, especially given coach Sérgio Conceição’s thoughts on the matter when asked this week.

“The January market should only be for readjustments to cover for injuries like Marcano’s,” said Conceição. “I don’t believe it’s good for three or four players to come in and the same number to go out, because it will shake things up and require adaptation time. We don’t have the financial structure to go out and buy superstars, so it’s often better to trust – like I trust – in the squad I have.”

That said, Porto have been strongly linked with Famalicão centre-back Otávio. The 21-year-old Brazilian has been hugely impressive since moving to Portugal from Flamengo and given Porto’s problems in that position the move would make sense.

More than searching for new signings, Porto and Conceição will likely try and improve the output of a series of players who have been on the fringe of the first team without yet convincing the coach to give them a long run as starters such as Iván Jaime, André Franco, Francisco Conceição and Gonçalo Borges. Likewise, should Taremi leave, it will open the door for Danny Namaso, Toni Martínez or Fran Navarro to stake their claim to be Evanilson’s permanent strike partner up front.

Potential incomings: Otávio (Famalicão)

Braga, 4th, 29 points

A spate of interesting signings in the summer (José Fonte, Vítor Carvalho, João Moutinho, Rodrigo Zalazar, Rony Lopes and permanent deals for Víctor Gómez and Sikou Niakaté) left Braga with a well-balanced squad with no obvious shortfalls.

Sure enough, the Warriors have enjoyed a strong start to the season, both domestically and in the Champions League, where Artur Jorge’s men competed well against the likes of Real Madrid and Napoli. Braga have been especially impressive going forward and are currently top scorers in Portugal having netted 36 goals in their 14 Primeira Liga matches.

Star striker Simon Banza will miss several games at the start of the year as he represents the Democratic Republic of Congo at the AFCON tournament, but Braga are unlikely to dip into the transfer market as they have plenty of cover up front.

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