How the Premier League table would look based on xG | OneFootball

Manchester City, not Liverpool, are currently top of the Premier League xG table.

“Expected goals” (xG) is a statistical metric used to assess the likelihood of a goalscoring chance actually resulting in a goal based on the location and circumstances in which it occurred.

The higher the xG – with 1 being the maximum – the more likely it is that the opportunity will be converted into a goal. For example, 0.5xG chance has a 50% of being scored.

So if you think Manchester City should have won more games this season, or if you think Liverpool have been lucky, it turns out you might have been onto something.

Liverpool are currently top of the Premier League with 54 points having scored 48 goals and conceded just eight.

But based on xG, the Reds should actually be a point behind City in the table with just 45.53 points. They should have scored 44.35 goals and conceded 15.92 – the same as City.

In reality, City have conceded 16 goals and scored 54. Based on xG, they should have only actually scored 50.57 goals, but that would still make them the league’s top scorers.

Elsewhere, Tottenham are currently second in the table (having played a game more than Liverpool and City) but based on xG, Mauricio Pochettino’s side should actually be below Chelsea in 4th.

The Lilywhites have scored 46 goals and conceded 21 in real life but according to xG, those figures should be 36.07 scored and 25.92 conceded – a record which would leave them with a whopping 12 points fewer than they currently have.

And how about this for craziness? In the xG table, Wolves are above both Arsenal and Manchester United in 5th place.

The newly promoted side are currently 8th having symmetrically scored 23 goals and conceded 23, but xG dictates that it should be 26.59 for and 18.43 against – which would leave them with four points more than they have at the moment.

There isn’t too much change at the bottom of the xG table, where Huddersfield and Burnley are both in the relegation zone, just like in reality.

But interestingly, while Fulham’s xG would still give them the worst defensive record in the country with 40.65 goals conceded (they’ve actually conceded 47) they should have scored 3.12 goals more than they have, which would put them 17th instead of 19th.

The Premier League xG table in full

1. Manchester City 2. Liverpool 3. Chelsea 4. Tottenham 5. Wolves 6. Arsenal 7. Manchester United 8. Watford 9. Leicester 10. Everton 11. Bournemouth 12. Crystal Palace 13. West Ham 14. Southampton 15. Cardiff 16. Brighton 17. Fulham 18. Newcastle 19. Burnley 20. Huddersfield