How the Premier League table should look based on actual performances | OneFootball

Highlights

We're six games into the Premier League season and already, there are some pretty telling stories. Luton Town and Sheffield United both look like they're in for one incredibly long season, while Manchester City look as unstoppable as ever. It won't be long before the table starts to take a consistent shape, with teams really settling in and figuring out where the campaign is going to take them.

Some sides, like Chelsea and Manchester United, have had nightmare starts, while others like Brighton & Hove Albion continue to show why they're one of the best-run clubs in the world. Is the table an accurate reflection of how the season has played out so far, though? Not quite. In fact, according to Opta Analyst's Expected Points Model, the league would be looking very different if it was based on how teams had performed so far.

What is Opta Analyst's Expected Points Model?

Using XG (expected goals), the model simulates the amount of goals teams should have scored in games and tallies it all up to generate the amount of points each side in the Premier League would have if their performances actually reflected how they fared in the league. Now, we know XG really doesn't mean all that much if teams can't finish their chances, but in the grand scheme of things, it can provide a hint of what's on the horizon for sides if they can just figure it all out.

It can also highlight how certain teams may be overachieving right now and suggests that they might be brought firmly back down to earth sooner rather than later. If anything, it provides hope to those sides that might not be quite where they want to be but haven't looked too bad and suggests things might turn around soon. How does the Premier League table look then if the positions were based on how teams had actually performed? Let's find out.

Chelsea should be way higher in the table

At first glance, the modified Premier League table has some really interesting revelations. Chelsea fans can at least take solace in the fact that their current misfortunes aren't completely deserved, and they'd actually be doing a hell of a lot better if they knew how to hit the back of the net.

While the Blues currently occupy 14th place in the league, they'd actually be 4th if their fortunes reflected their performances on the pitch. It offers some comfort to the club's fans who will hope that things are turned around soon. In 2023, no Premier League team has scored fewer goals than Chelsea, but at least this table suggests they aren't having trouble creating chances, just finishing them.

Numbers taken from Understat

Luton Town aren't as out of their depth as the table suggests

Heading into the season, everyone and their uncle expected Luton to struggle this year. The club gained promotion to the Premier League last year, but hasn't got anywhere near the financial muscle or squad to compete with some of England's best. The season has kind of played out that way too, with the Hatters currently sat in 18th place, picking up their first point of the season last time out against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

The underlying numbers and the Expected Points Model suggest, though, that the club haven't been quite as bad as you'd think and aren't being completely outplayed just yet. In fact, if they'd have converted the chances they've been creating, Luton would be as high as 14th. All they need to do now is figure out how to score, and it might be foolish to count them out.

On the flip side, the table also demonstrates that there are a number of teams who have actually outplayed the XG and may have had some semblance of luck in front of goal throughout the season so far.

Tottenham Hotspur would barely be a top-10 side

Under Ange Postecoglou, Tottenham Hotspur have been one of the surprise stories of the season so far. Many tipped them to struggle following the sale of Harry Kane in the summer, but they've been tremendous so far and are yet to taste defeat in the league this campaign. They've exceeded expectations so far, and it seems they've also, quite fittingly, exceeded their expected goals and expected points according to Opta Analyst's table.

While Spurs currently occupy a spot in the Champions League places, they'd be as low down as ninth if the league was based solely on their performances and their underlying numbers. Still, Postecoglou has done a tremendous job transforming the team after last year's disappointments, and if anyone can keep the side overperforming in the manner in which they are, it's certainly the Australian. They aren't the only team currently exceeding expectations, though.

Fulham would be in the relegation zone

Last season, Fulham returned to the Premier League and, under Marco Silva, they shocked everyone and finished comfortably in the mid-table, while many tipped them to go straight back down to the Championship. The club overperformed in terms of XG, and it was expected that they'd come back down to Earth this year and struggle, but it seems they are at it again.

The club have been extremely prolific in front of goal and are currently in 11th place, only just in the bottom half of the table. Opta Analyst's Expected Points Model reveals that they'd actually fall all the way down to 18th and sit in the relegation zone if their underlying numbers actually matched the production on the pitch.

There are a few less surprising reveals like Manchester City still being first, or Burnley and Sheffield United still propping up the rest of the table. All in all, though, XG and tables like this one don't mean a thing in the long run as a side can create as many chances as they want, but if they can't hit a barn door, then they deserve to be in the position they're in, regardless of how flattering their performances may have been.