How many points would Bristol Rovers need to guarantee safety? | OneFootball

Having seemingly got themselves out of trouble, what is the 'magic number' that can see Gasheads breathe easy in April?

Bristol Rovers' renewed membership in the third-tier looks a lot more likely after successive league wins against Cambridge United and Barnsley have found the club seven points from the drop.

The mood around the club is at a season-long high. However, with over 20 fixtures left in League One, the Pirates will be well aware that, despite favourable circumstances, their survival pursuit is only just beginning.

While the table is beginning to hint towards its final form, it remains largely anecdotal. With this in mind, what exactly is the magic number that Rovers, and their nearest rivals, must strive for in order to be truly confident in their evasion of the drop?

52 points has always been enough for League One survival

Excluding, for obvious reasons, the curtailed 2019-20 campaign, there have been 19 seasons of England's rebranded third-tier thus far.

The Gas have been relegated twice from the division in that time, with 45 (2010-11) and 38 (2020-21) points respectively. Though judging by historical averages, these demotions were very much to be expected.

Having scoured the last 20 seasons of League One drop-zones, we can see the averages and the extremes of the division's poor performers over the years, with the mean points total of a team finishing in that oh-so agonising 21st place being 47, just over one point-per-game.

This 47 point average has been more than enough to survive in each of the past four League One seasons, particularly in the astonishingly poor 2021-22 campaign, where Fleetwood miraculously survived with just 40 points, while relegation and play-off places were separated by a whopping 43.

However, this average, while handy to know, is by no means the benchmark. Ten teams have faced the drop with a tally of 48 or higher, the most recent example of this being Plymouth Argyle, whose half-century of points saw them three goals shy of safety at the hands of AFC Wimbledon in 2018-19.

Instead, the salient information in the above table can be gathered from the 'maximum' column, as Torquay United's 51 points in 2004-05 still proves to this day to be the unluckiest side to fall through the trap door.

If Iñigo Calderón's men can exceed that figure, they will almost certainly be safe. Hence, we can conclude that, much like the Premier League's fabled target of forty, League One's 'magic number' is officially 52 points, so congratulations Birmingham and Wycombe supporters, you've avoided the drop!

Bristol Rovers are on course to avoid a particularly poor drop-zone

With 28 points from 25 matches going into an away tie with Wigan Athletic, Bristol Rovers find themselves with a PPG of 1.12, implying at their current rate they find themselves, conveniently, exactly on course for that all important 52 points come the season's conclusion.

However, this may be superfluous, as the division's modern history dictates that 2024-25 is shaping up to provide a particularly poor bottom four.

Currently sitting in 21st place, Crawley Town symbolise the relegation line at present, and judging by past seasons, they should consider themselves lucky to have three teams behind them.

While the number of games played varies, no season in the history of League One has seen the entirety of the bottom four on 21 points or fewer by this point in the year.

At present, Crawley are on course for just 40 pts by the end of the season, which, with their goal difference, would see them relegated in every League One campaign, with no exception.

This, of course, bodes extremely well for the likes of Bristol Rovers, Northampton, Peterborough and Wigan, who have all seemingly chosen their underwhelming half-seasons with perfect timing.

Assuming the Gas' new Basque manager can continue having a greater impact on the side than his predecessor this season, the signs are pointing at a considerably less stressful springtime at the Mem than first feared.

Rovers will need to accrue 24 points in their next 21 matches to virtually guarantee safety, although history dictates that they could need as little as twelve.

While the equivalent of eight victories won't fall into the lap of any side in the division, with a reinvigorated squad, Rovers continuing their current PPG certainly appears to be a hugely achievable minimum target.

Extremely positive reading for anyone not currently in the drop zone. However, as we find out time and time again in the EFL, the relegation scrap is never as simple as it should be.