Greece v England Bet Builder tips: Back 3/1 shot as Three Lions expected to struggle | OneFootball

England boss Lee Carsley

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - fancies England to struggle in Greece and finds a 3/1 shot to attack through the Betfair Bet Builder on Thursday...

Greece vs EnglandThursday 14 NovemberLive on ITV1

Motivation factor firmly in Greeks favour

When trying to assess a football match from a betting perspective there are lots of variables to consider. Some we can quantify using numbers, some we can use our eyes and experience to form an opinion on and some things are hard calculate fully without knowing what is going on inside the dressing room.

One of those aspects is the motivation factor - but we can gauge an idea based on how much a match means to a certain team, key quotes from the camp and assessing the narrative of the fixture.

Greece will be at full pelt here and England, although their talking heads will say all the right things pre-match, will just be wishing this international break passes without injury to key personnel.

Remember, there's no major tournament next summer and no Euros or World Cup qualification place at stake, so the importance of these Nations League games has no bearing on qualification.

That, added to the fact that Lee Carsley will again be in charge with permanent boss Thomas Tuchel not starting officially until January, means these fixtures are truly tinged with the friendly vibe from an England perspective.

Carsley will also be without the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Levi Colwill, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden.

It's the opposite scenario for Greece.

Avoiding defeat against the Three Lions would seal a deserved promotion to League A after winning four-from-four in impressive fashion, including that 2-1 win at Wembley. It's a big deal for them.

England enjoyed lots of territory and dominated the key match momentum charts during that defeat but to call them unlucky to lose would be wide of the mark. Greece restricted the Three Lions to just 12 shots to a backdrop of 0.84 worth of expected goals as Carsley's masterplan of playing all their star cooks very much spoilt the broth.

FIFA's 48th-ranked side in Greece created just 0.74 worth of expected goals themselves but that doesn't factor in the three goals they scored but were ruled out for marginal offside calls.

Ivan Jovanović hatched a plan that worked a charm - and I'm expecting more of the same defensive organisation and speed in transition in this reverse fixture where England are an obvious lay at 1.95 on the Betfair Exchange or, for Bet Builder purposes, the double chance option for Greece at 5/6 is a cracking price.

How to boost laying England to a 3/1 shot

Hunting for value in the prop markets to add to the pro-Greece play is difficult at this stage without knowing who Carsley is going to select or how he's likely to line-up his England team.

So, we're going to have to play it quite simple and latch ourselves onto some well supported selections in the goals and cards markets that also would favour a likely positive result for Greece.

The under 2.5 goals line is trading at 8/13 which tells you all you need to know about how the markets are foreseeing this game going. A draw for Greece has to rate as one of most likely outcomes so when a 0-0 or a 1-1 is a runner, the under goals line does tend to organically shorten into what some may deem a short price. I think it's fair enough in this case.

We can also add Greece to win more cards than England into the mix.

With jeopardy low for England and the chance of achieving something on the table for Greece, the chance for cynical fouls, gamesmanship and time-wasting is high for the home side, especially if they deliver on being able to avoid defeat.

They have won the cards race in all four of their Nations League games so far, including being shown four at Wembley whilst England were shown just two. Stretching it further back the Greeks have won the cards race in 14 of their last 16 international matches showing a clear liking for the darts arts.

Greece on the double chance, under 2.5 goals and Greece to be shown the most cards generates us a 3/1 Bet Builder to attack with confidence.

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