Football Accumulator Tips: Leeds part of 4/1 'Match Odds 90' Acca as EFL returns | OneFootball

Football Tips

Rodon is back at Leeds following a hugely successful loan

The EFL is back and so is Andy Robson with a Saturday football four-fold acca that can be backed at 5/1 on the opening weekend of the 2024/25 season...

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With the return of the EFL, I've picked out a strong four-fold acca for Saturday's matches across three different divisions. We are using Betfair's unique Match Odds 90 market for our selections, meaning if our picks are winning as the clock strikes 90:00, it will not matter if goals go against us in added time! No more injury time heartbreak.

Leg #1 - Leeds to beat Portsmouth @ 3/10

Leeds were unfortunate not to clinch promotion back to the Premier League last season, but they won just once in their last six games and found themselves in the lottery of the playoffs.

Their home record was strong with 16 league victories and just two home league defeats all season. Leeds were defensively robust with just 16 goals conceded and an expected goals against (xGA) of 0.56 per game, allowing just 2.52 shots on target per fixture.

Their underlying performance was the strongest in the league. At home they had the most expected points (xPts), the best non-penalty expected goals (xG) ratio, along with the highest shots in the box and shots on target ratio. Their departures have been well documented, but they have recruited well with Joe Rothwell and Jayden Bogle, whilst Brenden Aaronson has returned from a loan spell.

Of the last nine promoted clubs into the Championship, only two have finished 15th or higher - the step up is big. Portsmouth return to the division after winning the League One title last term and in my view, they overachieved a little given that their xPts had them in 4th place and the non-penalty xG ratio in 8th.

Abu Kamara has returned to his parent club and Colby Bishop is out with a heart issue meaning they have lost 28 goals and 13 assists from last term, I think they'll struggle to cope with Leeds here.

Leg #2 - Middlesbrough to beat Swansea @ 8/11

Last season, Middlesbrough finished eighth in the Championship and just four points of the playoffs, this was despite losing key players over last summer.

Manager Michael Carrick rebuilt the squad and although it took time to gel with injuries playing a part, they ended last term strongly with seven wins from their last 12 games as key striker Emmanuel Latte Lath bagged 11 goals in the process.

No Championship side won more points than Boro over the last 12 games of the last season and the underlying data was also impressive for a side that was in transition. I had them 5th for xPTS and for non-penalty xG ratio.

On the other hand, Swansea finished in 14th last season. They struggled with style and purpose early on and after a change of manager, they improved without really posing a threat to either end of the table. On the road, the Swans struggled, with a record against the top half of just one win all season, conceding 2+ in nine of those.

They conceded an average of 1.6 goals and only two sides had a higher xGA on the road. The signings they have made don't appear to have addressed these defensive issues and this will be a season of development.

Leg #3 - Doncaster to beat Accrington @ 1/2

Doncaster were one of the most in-form teams in the country at the back end of last season, winning 13 of their last 18 games and losing just once as they gate-crashed the playoffs.

The players they have lost over the summer have been replaced well with Jordan Gibson, Ephraim Yeboah, and veteran striker Billy Sharp coming into Eco-Power Stadium.

Stanley have issues both on and off the pitch and the fan base is unhappy that long serving manager John Coleman was discarded by owner Andy Holt due to contract concerns. Holt has constantly made comments about the club's finances too.

Doolan took over from Coleman, but he oversaw just three wins from their last 11 games last term. This season, they look weaker with an ageing squad that lacks quality, their better players from last season have either left or returned to their parent clubs and the signings they have made look weak on paper.

It is hard to find an argument they will avoid relegation, never mind take points from Doncaster on MD1.

Leg #4 - Birmingham to beat Reading @ 1/2

Birmingham City have had a complete change of focus over the summer; the new owners have reset the club and there is a feel-good factor within the team and the fan base. St Andrews is sold out for the visit of Reading on Saturday, while the Blues have sold 18,000 season tickets, the most for over 10 years.

They have kept players such as Ethan Laird, Jordan James and Koji Miyoshi, and they have strengthened the squad with several signings, spending close to £10m. Alfie May, who has scored 20+ goals in his last three League One campaigns, will lead the attack.

Last season they were not a bad Championship team, I had them 12th on xPts and 17th for non penalty xG ratio, but their run under Wayne Rooney of two wins in 15 matches set the tone and the Blues never recovered.

Reading only won four times on the road last season with only their strong home form keeping them out of relegation trouble. Only three sides had a higher xGA on the road, with just five teams conceding more shots on target.

The Royals have not signed a single player this summer as the club's ownership is still up in the air. It's a youthful squad which may find the atmosphere at St Andrews a little overwhelming.

Recommended bets

Back Leeds, Middlesbrough, Doncaster & Birmingham all to win @ 4/1