FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle beating Aston Villa and finding success this season | OneFootball

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday afternoon’s match against Aston Villa.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United at home to Aston Villa.

Their computer model gives Aston Villa a 23% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and 51% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United a 21% chance of finishing top four.

As for relegation, the computer model now makes NUFC less than a 1% chance of going down.

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Nottingham Forest most likely (63%) to be relegated, with then Bournemouth a 51% shot, Wolves (40%), Leeds (34%), Southampton (26%), Leicester (18%), Fulham (12%), Brentford (12%), Everton (20%), Crystal Palace (10%), Villa (9%), West Ham (4%) and Brighton (1%).

At the top they rate Man City a 72% chance of retaining the title, with Arsenal 15%, Liverpool 4%, Chelsea 4%, Tottenham 2%, Man Utd 2%.