FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of Newcastle United finding success this season and beating West Ham | OneFootball

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against West Ham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches in this upcoming round of games, including Newcastle United against West Ham.

Their computer model gives West Ham a 16% chance of a win, it is 24% for a draw and 60% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

This is how the Premier League table now looks on Thursday morning:

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

At the top they rate Arsenal a 63% chance of retaining the title, with Man City 34%, Newcastle United 1%, Man U 1%.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now a 55% chance of finishing top four and getting Champions League football. With rival clubs to do the same, rated as Arsenal 99%, Man City 98%, Man Utd 64%, Liverpool 29%, Brighton 22%, Tottenham 22%, Brighton 14%, Chelsea 7%, Brentford 2%, Aston Villa 1%.

As for relegation, the computer model now makes NUFC no longer a participant in the battle for the drop, having amassed 39 points in 20 matches.

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Everton most likely (68%) to be relegated, with then Bournemouth a 66% shot, Southampton (51%), Wolves (37%), Forest (28%), Leicester (16%), Leeds (15%), West Ham (13%), Crystal Palace (6%).