FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of Newcastle United finding success this season and beating Crystal Palace | OneFootball

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Crystal Palace.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches in this upcoming round of games, including Newcastle United against Crystal Palace.

Their computer model gives Crystal Palace a 21% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and 54% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

This is how the Premier League table now looks on Wednesday morning:

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

At the top they rate Arsenal a 55% chance of retaining the title, with Man City 36%, Man Utd 5%, Newcastle United 2%.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now a 52% chance of finishing top four and getting Champions League football. With rival clubs to do the same, rated as Arsenal 98%, Man City 96%, Man Utd 71%, Liverpool 34%, Brighton 22%, Tottenham 18%, Brighton 14%, Chelsea 6%, Brentford 2%.

As for relegation, the computer model now makes NUFC no longer a participant in the battle for the drop, having amassed 38 points in 19 matches.

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Bournemouth most likely (64%) to be relegated, with then Everton a 60% shot, Southampton (43%), Wolves (37%), Forest (32%), West Ham (20%), Leicester (18%), Leeds (16%), Crystal Palace (8%), Villa (1%).