FA Cup Semi-Final Tips: Back under 2.5 goals double at 5/2 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Back 5/2 double in FA Cup semi-finals says Lewis Jones

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - in his latest Notebook makes the argument of why the Wembley factor makes the under 2.5 goals double a value call in the FA Cup semi-finals...

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Opposing goals in matches at Wembley has proven to be a sustainable long-term betting strategy.

It might be the mecca of English football - to play there is every footballers dream but I'm convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game. Maybe the jeopardy of what is at stakes plays a part which in turn leads to low-scoring football matches but I think games there rarely spark into life.

Is it the pitch? Is it the grass? Is it the atmosphere? I don't know. But what I do know is the numbers are painting some hard evidence behind low scoring matches.

The last 43 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per 90 stands at 1.97 goals in normal time and if you backed the under 3.5 line in those 43 games, you'd have won 39 times - that's a 91 per cent strike rate. Yes, the prices on offer for under 3.5 goals are quite tight but a return at that strike rate means you'd be swimming in profit if backing that line blind.

The under goal line has almost become an automatic play when a domestic or European game is scheduled for Wembley and there are huge betting opportunities across this weekend where Crystal Palace take on Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest play Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-finals.

The case for unders: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

This game is a big deal for both clubs. Crystal Palace have never won the FA Cup, finishing runners-up in 1990 and in 2016. Yes, think Alan Pardew dancing on the touchline. This is an opportunity for them to break their trophy duck and the fanbase know it. They'll flock to Wembley on Saturday with genuine hope that this could be their year.

Meanwhile, despite being FA Cup winners seven times, it's been 68 years since Aston Villa lifted the trophy. Generations of Villa fans have never seen this great club land a major honour - this could also be their time.

All this hope, expectation and excitement does filter through to players, who will feel that from the fans. These types of games can become a must-not-lose where risk-free football takes over. Aston Villa may have to change their approach anyway due to Palace's fantastic record against them recently where they've won the aggregate scoreline 13-4 over the last four meetings.

The Wembley factor could engulf both teams, meaning the under 2.5 line is a runner at 4/5 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

The case for unders: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Pep Guardiola has decided that playing pragmatically has been the only way Manchester City are going to save their season. Since they've switched back to the old guard of Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan in the win over Bournemouth instead of playing with their direct wide players like Jeremy Doku and Savinho, they've won five of their six games.

It's far from vintage City but it's carrying them over the line towards the end of what has been a miserable season for them. This pragmatic style is leading to low scoring games where all that matters is the result for Guardiola. It's unusual for City to see that seven of their last 11 matches have fallen under the 2.5 goals line.

under 2.5 goal-line at [Evens] on the Betfair Sportsbook.

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