Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Liverpool 2 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the last three results from the weekend that were played on Sunday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Sunday 27 August

Burnley 0.63 v Aston Villa 2.84 (1-3)

Sheff Utd 0.76 v Man City 3.85 (1-2)

Newcastle United 1.62 v Liverpool 0.86 (1-2)

In the three games, Newcastle United were the exception to the rule.

In the other two Sunday matches, the teams with the far superior expected goals stats, picked up all three points.

Newcastle United had almost double the expected goals measure (1.62 v 0.86) but yet lost.

Plenty of people saying Newcastle ‘should’ have won and they are correct but sometimes it just doesn’t work out like that. Look at the Man City stats, they had five times (3.85 v 0.76) better expected goals stats and yet almost didn’t win, needing an 88th minute winner. These are the fine margins.

Newcastle were the better side who created more and better chances, but didn’t take them, or Alisson made some great saves. The key Nunez goal was scored from a position where it needed a perfect strike to beat Nick Pope from distance and at an angle, give him 100 tries and I don’t think he scores many of them.

I think the big thing for me wasn’t so much the late NUFC defending, it was more the fact that Newcastle didn’t manage to have a much higher expected goals stat than 1.62. However, as Jurgen Klopp pointed out, going down to 10 men often has this effect, as they defend deeper and make it more difficult for opposition to find gaps / space. Ironically, I think that if Liverpool had kept 11 on the pitch, there’s every chance Newcastle would have created far more and better chances.

Liverpool didn’t create a lot and indeed, until the 81st minute they’d only had two efforts on target. They ended up with a total of four but the third and fourth ones ended up in the back of the United net.

Stats from :

Newcastle 1 Liverpool 2 – Sunday 27 August 4.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Gordon 25

Liverpool:

Van Dijk red card 28, Nunez 81, Nunez 90+3

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Liverpool 40% (46%)  Newcastle 60% (54%)

Total shots were Liverpool 9 (4) Newcastle 23 (8)

Shots on target were Liverpool 4 (2) Newcastle 8 (4)

Corners were Liverpool 9 (4) Newcastle 5 (3)

Referee: John Brooks

Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman (Targett 87), Burn, Bruno, Joelinton (Anderson 82), Tonali (Longstaff 72), Gordon (Barnes 72), Almiron, Isak (Wilson 72)

Subs:

Dubravka, Lascelles, Livramento, Murphy

(Alan Shearer proves the voice of reason after Newcastle 1 Liverpool 2 – No surprise – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 1 Liverpool 2 – Match ratings and comments on all of the NUFC players – Read HERE)