Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Leeds 0 Newcastle 0 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the six Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Chelsea 2.43 v Fulham 0.74 (2-0)

Tottenham 0.17 v Bournemouth 2.12 (0-1)

Wolves 0.94 v Everton 2.04 (2-3)

Sunderland 1.57 v Brentford 1.45 (2-1)

Man U 4.02 v Burnley 1.33 (3-2)

Leeds 0.68 v Newcastle United 0.30 (0-0)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Those Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how these matches really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

Two things really stand out for me.

In the other five matches on Saturday, the Premier League team with the higher Expected Goals stat won each of the five matches.

Whilst the four of the twelve clubs on Saturday that had the lowest Expected Goals stats, none of them scored a goal.

Spurs with a feeble 0.17 Expected Goals stat, Fulham 0.74, whilst Leeds and Newcastle were 0.68 and 0.30.

Little wonder the game at Elland Road finished goalless! Especially when you also factor in from the other stats (see below) that Leeds had only one effort on target and Newcastle the two.

Leeds 0 Newcastle 0 – Saturday 30 August 2025 5.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Leeds

Possession was Newcastle 57% Leeds 43%

Total shots were Newcastle 8 Leeds 10

Shots on target were Newcastle 2 Leeds 1

Corners were Newcastle 5 Leeds 5

Touches in the box Newcastle 13 Leeds 19

Newcastle team v Leeds:

Pope, Trippier (Hall 61), Schar, Botman (Barnes 69), Burn, Livramento, Tonali, Bruno, Ramsey (Miley 46), Jacob Murphy (Elanga 62), Osula