Euro 2024 Tips: What are England's chances this summer? | OneFootball

England provisional squad

Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal), James Trafford (Burnley)

Defenders: Jarrad Branthwaite (Everton), Lewis Dunk (Brighton & Hove Albion), Joe Gomez (Liverpool), Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Harry Maguire (Manchester United), Jarell Quansah (Liverpool), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle United), Kyle Walker (Manchester City)

Midfielders: Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Curtis Jones (Liverpool), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)

Forwards: Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Jack Grealish (Manchester City), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), James Maddison (Tottenham Hotspur), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)

To what extent does patriotism play a part in England being backed? Let's put it another way; to what extent are we wary of committing to France or Germany, because should they encounter the Three Lions this summer we suddenly have a conflict of interests?It's an age-old dilemma but thankfully, this time out, less so. England are 3/14.00 favourites on merit. They're in decent shape. They have the best players. They have every chance of winning their first major tournament for a couple of generations.

If doubts persist, there are plenty of other options in the outrights to back Harry Kane and company and get value at the same time. But perhaps it's time to put cynicism to one side. Perhaps it's time to believe.

England to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals

There are three big considerations here. The quality, or otherwise, of England's opponents in Group C. A potential pathway to the last four. And Gareth Southgate's track record at major tournaments with the Three Lions.

Let's start with the last one first, it being the easiest to assess.

For all that Southgate is criticised for being overly cautious in the big moments, he has proven to be a shrewd operator at navigating England to the business end of major competitions. It's there for all to see. In two World Cups and one Euro Championships, he has guided his side to a quarter-final, semi-final and final.

In the group stages, his return is equally as impressive with only a singular loss blotting the copybook. All told, across nine group games, the Three Lions have averaged 6.6 points, scoring 17 goals and conceding just five.

Which brings us to England's Group C opponents Denmark, Serbia, and Slovenia, none of whom are especially threatening.

The Danes endured a horrendous Qatar '22 and have made minimal adjustments to their squad since. Furthermore, in what should have been a routine qualifying group, Kasper Hjulmand's aging side conceded 10 goals across their 10 matches.

In what was an infinitely tougher grouping, that contained the reigning Euro champions, England scored every 32 minutes and conceded every 180 minutes.

As for Serbia, they may be first-timers at the Euros but in each of their three World Cup appearances they have imploded. In qualifying they were second best to Hungary with Montenegro running them close.

Lastly, Slovenia have yet to beat England in six encounters.

Top spot beckons therefore, which is a priceless commodity for the pathway it affords through the knockout stages.

The Group C winner is paired with a third-place finisher from elsewhere followed by the runner-up of Group A or B in the quarters.

England to reach Euro 2024 final

If only four remain and England are still in the reckoning we can anticipate a good deal of concern from the general public as Southgate's conservative approach comes under the spotlight.

Will he now play it safe and go with a double-pivot? Will adventure be kept to a minimum? The England manager has form for being risk-averse when it matters most, and it ultimately being costly.

Yet there was little evidence of this three years ago when Denmark were successfully negotiated in a Euro semi. Then, the hosts accrued 20 attempts on goal, 10 on target, as they played on the front-foot for the most part.From all of the many permutations the likeliest semi-final opponents will be either France or Belgium, sides who have taken advantage of England's wariness in recent years on the biggest stage.

You would hope that lessons will have been learned.

Harry Kane to win Euro 2024 Golden Boot

Across the last three decades the average number of goals needed to secure a Euro Golden Boot is 4.7. Moreover, with modern-day tactics lessening the importance of number nines we can expect that average to drop tournament on tournament.

Staying with that reasoning it is highly pertinent that from this summer's big hitters only England (Kane), France (Mbbappe) and Germany (Fullkrug) possess forwards who score a large proportion of their goals. The rest share the goal-scoring onus around, as best evidenced by Spain, who's last 20 international goals have been scored by 14 different players.

It's perhaps relevant too that Niclas Fullkrug - 33/134.00 for the Golden Boot - is a whole level below Kane 5/16.00 and Mbappe 11/26.50.

Should England go beyond the quarters at the Euros that's a minimum of 540 minutes played, plus the possibility of extra-time. Bad back permitting, Kane is more than capable of converting four-plus goals in that period.

Every metric tells us so. The 30-year-old has fired nine in eight starts for his country post-Qatar. He scored every 78.9 minutes in the Bundesliga in 2023/24. He has the pedigree of winning a World Cup Golden Boot in 2018.

The spectre of Mbappe casts a doubt of course. Indeed, there is a distinct chance that a straightforward shoot-out plays out across the month between the two.

Kane has scored every 155 minutes at major tournaments for the Three Lions, 12 in total. Mbappe has also scored 12, at a rate of a goal every 126 minutes.

Additionally, there is always the danger of an outsider having the summer of their lives.

Even so, fives for a reliably prolific forward, who has scored 28.5% of the tournament favourite's goals in the last five years? Yes please.

England to win Euro 2024

Simply put, England are blessed with five players who every other nation would sacrifice a body part for. It matters too, greatly, that all five have enjoyed highly successful seasons.

Before we get to that, however, should it concern us that none of these fabulous quintet are defenders by trade? Moreover, the Three Lions have been blighted by injuries at the back for some time now, particularly in the full-back roles.

And yes, that's a worry. In Southgate's first 50 games in charge, a well-drilled rearguard kept clean sheets in 57.1% of its fixtures. In the 23 games since that percentage has dropped notably to 39.1%.

Success this summer in part depends on John Stones being able to manage multiple games over several weeks, and for either Luke Shaw or Ben Chilwell to recover from long-term lay-offs.

Ahead of this cause for pause though, what an extraordinary array of world-class talent is on display.

Declan Rice has been outstanding for Arsenal in 2023/24 and on the international stage is swiftly growing into a leader and conductor of games.

Jude Bellingham has been hugely instrumental in Real Madrid's La Liga triumph, boasting 25 goal involvements and 1.8 key passes per 90. The 20-year-old has a Champions League final to look forward to and is a Ballon d'Or winner in the making.

As is FWA Footballer of the Year Phil Foden who was statistically the best player in 10 of his 33 league appearances this term. With 8.7 more goals than his xG suggested, the most naturally gifted English player since Gazza is also a reliable goal source.

Then there's Bukayo Saka, who has also accrued 25 goal involvements, a career-best to date. The Arsenal flyer's last two assists for England have been for Harry Kane.

Which brings us to Kane, a Golden Boot favourite for 44 reasons, that being his tally for Bayern this season.

If Southgate gets the balance right, and if just two of the above have stand-out tournaments, then England absolutely have the beating of anyone and everyone.

Now read Kevin Hatchard's Golden Boot tipping piece here!