Euro 2024 Tips on Sunday: Back 1.88 best bet in Scotland v Hungary | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Goals are expected when Scotland take to the field this evening

It's the final round of fixtures in Group A on Sunday and Mark Stinchcombe is here to talk about the best bets...

Permutations

With betting, it is crucial we have all the information to be able to analyse the whole picture to accurately assess the odds.

Germany are through to the round of 16 and confirmed in the top two. They will win the group if they avoid defeat against Switzerland.

Switzerland will be through to the round of 16 if they avoid defeat against Germany or Scotland fail to beat Hungary.

Scotland can finish second but need to beat Hungary and hope Switzerland lose, plus a swing of seven goals.

Hungary cannot finish in the top two and will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they do not beat Scotland.

With this being Group A and thus the first group to finish, we don't yet know what you will need to qualify as one of the four best third place teams. Since the groups were expanded in 2016, three of the eight teams have managed to qualify with just three points.

So only Germany's motivation is up for discussion. However, it's likely they will play to win knowing winning the group they will likely play the runner up in Group C in one of Denmark/Slovenia/Serbia, compared to finishing second and playing the runner up in Group B, likely to be Italy. Plus their momentum is strong right now with two wins and seven goals scored and I'm not sure they will want to upset that rhythm, including making wholesale changes.

Switzerland v Germany

Generally I'm not a fan of betting on teams that don't need to win but if the price is too big, I have to get involved. A good check for this is to use the closing odds, the best guide for the correct price. Germany were 1.31 v Scotland on the opening night, yet despite the Scottish woes and the Swiss' prowess v Hungary, Switzerland were still 2.0 v Scotland, where they failed to win. Based on that Germany should be 1.57 so I'm happy to back them at 1.77, having discussed the motivation aspect, and with some home advantage.

Germany have averaged over 70% possession so far in both games, with the Swiss only managing 51% against the same opponents. If Germany can nullify Granit Xhaka, something Scotland managed, then the match should be on their terms. Germany are averaging 19.5 shots per-game compared to the Swiss' 13, hitting the target 8.5 times v 5.5, whilst conceding three fewer shots per-game.

With Switzerland boss Murat Yakin not knowing his best striker having started with one-cap Kwadwo Duah in the opener and then Xherdan Shaqiri in an unfamiliar false nine v Scotland, with Breel Embolo seemingly only fir enough for a cameo, I don't think it's ideal where as the German team picks itself and the front four of Havertz, Musiala, Wirtz and Gundogan are in excellent form. If they do start with a rotated lineup, I would advise no bet.

Scotland v Hungary

A fascinating betting heat here with Hungary very slight faves at 2.56. I've been disappointed with them so far with two defeats out of two by two goal margins. They've averaged lower possession than the likes of Georgia and Poland, two big outsiders in the group, compared to being third group faves, they've had the second lowest shots per-game in the tournament and unsurprisingly scored just one goal. Defensively they're giving up the fourth most shots per-game (17) and sit in the same rank for xG conceded. Would I be rushing to back them to win as Faves? Absolutely not.

Scotland shook off the poor 5-1 defeat v Germany to be much more competitive against Switzerland, seemingly playing with lots more energy and intensity. However, individual errors seem to an issue defensively, and it's now 27 goals conceded in their last 11 games, winning just one (v Gilbralter).

So what's the bet? Bit of a blind bet here but when the market is offering 1.88 on over 2.5 goals (a perceived only 53% chance) I have to get involved seeing as both sides need to win so at some point will have to go for it.

A general rule for major tournaments is the last group stage round sees an increase in goals with a combination of last chances for teams and qualified teams playing with more freedom. Indeed looking at EURO 2020, only 10 of the 24 R1 and R2 group stage games went over 2.5 goals (42%). Yet in the final round, 8 of the 12 went over 2.5 goals (67%). Indeed for both Hungary and Scotland 8 of their last 12 games have gone over 2.5 (67%) so I see no reason not to get involved at the price.

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