Euro 2024 Tips on Monday: Back Evens best bet in Croatia v Italy | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Could it be Luka Modric's last dance for Croatia?

It's the final round of fixtures in Group B on Monday and Mark Stinchcombe is back to talk about his best bets for the games on show...

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Permutations

Once again I'm going to run through the permutations, as it is crucial we have all the information to be able to analyse the whole picture to accurately assess the odds.

Spain are through to the round of 16 as group winners. They will be in the top half of the draw and will play a third place side.

Italy will be through to the round of 16 as group runners-up if they avoid defeat against Croatia. Italy will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Albania beat Spain - a 20/1 double. If Italy can finish as runners-up, they will be in the opposite side of the draw to Germany, Spain and Portugal and face Switzerland, so huge incentive.

Albania will be through to the round of 16 as group runners-up if they beat Spain and Croatia beat Italy providing Albania finish ahead of Croatia based on the EURO tiebreakers. Albania will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Croatia beat Italy.

Croatia will be through to the round of 16 as group runners-up if they beat Italy and Albania do not beat Spain. Croatia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Albania avoid defeat.

Hungary are the first team confirmed as finishing third but they only have three points and -3 goal difference. However, since the groups were expanded in 2016, three of the eight teams have managed to qualify with just three points. The worst goal difference has been -1.

So it's only Spain with nothing to play for, hence their 2/5 price. Given both lack of motivation and rotation being very much on the cards, it's not a match I really want to bet on given there are too many different ways the game can play out.

Croatia v Italy Tips

Bottom of the group with just one point, Croatia need at least a win to stand a chance of qualifying. Italy just need a point, and this is very much in my thinking that it's likely Croatia are going to be more pro-active of the two.

This is reflected in the odds with Italy now 7/5 from a pre-tournament 23/20. In these spots I generally like to back the team needing to win to rack up the corners. This is because the opposition tend to sit back and be organised, with little possession, and the team needing to win are forced out wide attempting crosses and shooting from long distance increasing the likelihood of corners.

Croatia's line is set at 4.5 with 10/11 for Overs which looks a great bet, however this group so far has been starved of corners. Croatia had just three corners v Albania and zero v Spain. Italy have conceded only five corners v Spain and three v Albania. Of course, with the current scenario these could turn out to be meaningless so I'm turning my approach elsewhere.

Another angle I like in these situations is the team needed to win to take lots of shots. And that's something Croatia have been good at. They had 16 in their opener against a higher quality opposition in Spain and 20 v Albania.

Italy have conceded 28 across their opening two games (14 per-game), yet we can back over 12.5 Croatia shots at 1/1. Of course, if Croatia score early on, it changes the dynamic of the game but given they have only scored 15 goals in their last 10 matches across group stage and qualification, just eight in eight games when you remove matches v Latvia, I think it could take them a while against a stubborn Italy with multiple Serie A title winners in their defence. Y

ou could also chance any of the higher lines including over 19.5 at 11/1, something which won when Croatia played Albania and Italy played Spain.

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Back Over 12.5 Croatia shots @ 1/1