Euro 2024 Tips: Back 15/2 Kane for Golden Boot on the Betfair Exchange | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Jimmy says there is value in Harry Kane Golden Boot

With two days in between the group stages before the knockouts begin at Euro 2024, Jimmy The Punt has revisited the Outright and Golden Boot markets...

Who's going to win Euro 2024?

Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Italy, Belgium have all made it to the knockout stages of Euro 2024.

The bad news for the first four nations is they are all in the same side of the bracket meaning only one can make it to the final.

It means England's potential route to the final (not saying I expect them to make it) would see them face Slovakia in the last 16, Italy or Switzerland in the quarter-finals and Austria, Turkey, Netherlands or Romania in the semis. This goes a little way to explaining why England remain favourites at 5.0 on the Betfair Exchange.

I still don't want to get England onside as favourites, favourable bracket or not.

The Three Lions were as dull as dishwater in the group stage and Gareth Southgate continued to shirk the big calls.

Which begs the question, is there going to be a surprise winner this Euros?

Before we go in-depth on the teams' chances, here are the latest Exchange odds:

Das Team excite backers

Given the lopsided bracket, it may be worth getting one of the bigger nations onside, backing them with a view to laying if they make the semi-finals.

The ship may have sailed with Austria whose price has crumbled to 25.00 from 81.00 antepost but there is plenty to get excited about with Das Team.

Ralf Rangnick has his nation playing his high pressing style, evident as only Germany boast a lower PPDA and no one has completed more tackles (51), ball recoveries (132) or fouls (49) than Austria.

Austria topped Group D ahead of France and the Netherlands, beating the latter in a topsy-turvy final group game.

I dread to imagine the game if England play them in the semis and, come to think of it, Austria may be worth backing to just win the whole thing. On a game-by-game basis, keep an eye out for their team tackle and foul lines as they average 17 tackles and 16.3 fouls a game.

Switzerland can compete with the best

Alongside Belgium trading at 42.00 is Switzerland, another beneficiary of the bracket.

If they get past Italy in the round of 16, Switzerland's potential route to the final would pit them against England/Slovakia and then Austria/Turkey or Netherlands/Romania.

Murat Yakin's side showed they can go toe-to-toe with the best nations in the draw with Germany.

After a disappointing qualification campaign, Yakin switched to a 3-4-3 and it paid dividends in the group stages.

The Swiss do not have any standout individuals, barring perhaps Xherdan Shaqiri who gets defrosted for every major tournament, and their strength is their impressive core.

Mainstays Yann Sommer, Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, Fabian Schar and captain Granit Xhaka have combined for over 475 caps.

The Swiss side limited Germany to very little in compact mid/low block, limiting the hosts to shots from distance.

The 3-1 victory over Hungary and the 1-1 draw with Scotland shows this side's versatility. In the first match, their attacking flair was evident, while the draw showed they can dig their heels in and get a result when they aren't necessarily at their best.

I expect Switzerland will navigate the last 16 clash with Italy and could make a deep lunge into the tournament.

Golden Boot

There have been seven own goals but I expect them to dry up as the poorest performing sides are weeded out of the competition and the games steady up. The Golden Boot race looks wide open.

Five is usually the magic number, so the Golden Boot market may be worth a revisit but take my advice with a pinch of salt as my antepost picks (Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo) netted a combined total of zero in the group stages.

Knockout Kane

Harry Kane is England's joint top goalscorer with one goal at the Euro's.

The frontman has an xG of 1.1, 0.57 vs Slovenia, 0.28 against Denmark and 0.20 against Serbia and Jan Oblak (Slovenia's keeper) had exactly the same amount of touches (32) as Kane.

It has not been vintage Kane this summer, not the performances we've come to expect from England's all-time leading scorer and a man with 44 goals for Bayern this term.

Kane has always been a slow starter though.

Remember that August voodoo in the Premier League? It took him 15 games and over 1,000 minutes of top flight action across his career before he finally netted in the first month of the season. These sluggish starts have kind of seeped into major tournaments.

Kane has netted 13 goals at major finals, seven have come in 10 knockout appearances and the other five have come in 14 group stage games.

At the last Euros he did not manage a goal in the group games but finished with four goals. As we head into the knockout rounds, Kane leads the betting at 9.0 in the Golden Boot race and I think that has to be the bet with Slovakia up next.

France face Mbappe conundrum

It seems odd to say that France can't live with Kylian Mbappe and can't live without him - he is probably the best player in the tournament - but it kind of rings true based on their performances so far.

With his attacking compatriots misfiring, Les Bleus lacked creativity in his absence and became one-dimensional when he played.

Didier Deschamps also dropped Antoine Griezmann for a more pragmatic midfield three in the final group game against Poland.

Mbappe is not a bad player to bear the brunt of France's attacking burden but it does make them easier to predict which in principle makes them easier to stop.

He has had the most shots per game and most shots on target per game of any player in the tournament. He played a major part in both of France's goals, forcing an own goal and netting the other.

Off the mark at Euros finals, at the second attempt, his nation's penalty taker and main man, the 9.20 about him winning the Golden Boot could be worth a go.

Unlikely German hero

Niclas Fullkrug is Germany's beautiful brute of a forward. He may not be cut from the same cloth as German strikers of yesteryear but he is streetwise and crucially dependable.

No starts, three appearances, 73 minutes played and two goals.

The first a thunderbastard of a strike against Scotland and the second, his 13th for his country and without doubt the most important, at the time at least anyway.

In hindsight, the injury-time equaliser moved Germany to the tricky side of the bracket but that is by-the-by.

Supersub or starter, his habit of popping up with important goals is why he is worth a look to win the Golden Boot at 14.0.